New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 12, 2026

FINAL+2STL

NYM

9-6-1

STL

10-8-1

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

5,477 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Christian ScottNYM
5.3± 2.9low

Hits

Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 0.8high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.9high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
A.J. EwingNYM
1.8± 2.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.8± 1.4high

RBIs

Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
A.J. EwingNYM
0.7± 0.9high
Mark VientosNYM
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

STL

.675

OPS

.718

▶

.717

.300

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.04

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.47

4.12

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.26

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.35

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

NYM 1 · STL 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
STL	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Semien2B	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Polanco1B	.333	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. BichetteSS	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Robert Jr.CF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Baty3B	.400	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
F. AlvarezC	.429	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. TauchmanRF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TaylorCF	.300	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. MauricioSS	.292	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Reimer3B	.267	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Schwartz1B	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
V. Gomez2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. RudickLF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. Smith2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RortvedtC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. SengerC	.176	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Clifford1B	.053	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. HernándezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	5	1	1	3	10

Player

.167

.333

.227

.333

.400

.429

.250

.300

.292

.267

1.000

.000

.250

.000

.000

.176

.053

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ManaeaRP	2.2	6	3	3	1	4	56
A. RozekRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	4
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	19
L. WeaverRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	13
T. MyersRP	3.0	1	0	0	1	2	32
Team	8.0	8	3	3	4	7	124

Player

2.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

3.0

Team

8.0

124

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WinnSS	.143	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. Burleson1B	.286	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
N. VelazquezLF	.333	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
N. Gorman3B	.222	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
J. WalkerRF	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
Y. PozoC	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	.273	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	.133	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
V. Scott IICF	.174	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. RivasSS	.227	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Jordan3B	.071	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. BirgeC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Mendoza2B	.273	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. KoperniakLF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Moore2B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Mendlinger3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. LevensonOF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	3	8	3	1	4	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. McGreevySP	5.0	4	1	1	1	3	72
C. RoycroftRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
G. SorianoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	17
M. PushardRP	0.2	1	0	0	2	1	25
D. SaladinSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
S. HalesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	5	1	1	3	10	144

Team

NYM

STL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs NYM.