Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 10, 2026

FINAL+7TOR

ATL

11-4-2

TOR

7-8-2

TD Ballpark · Dunedin, Florida

5,115 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.4± 2.1medium

Hits

Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.2high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.4high
Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Matt OlsonATL
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low
Ozzie AlbiesATL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

TOR

.720

OPS

◀

.718

.701

.311

OBP

.319

.310

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.05

3.41

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.13

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

ATL 0 · TOR 7 (by 7)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TOR	0	0	0	2	1	1	3	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. WilliamsSS	.100	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. GamelRF	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. FarmerDH	.429	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. HicklenCF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Keirsey Jr.CF	.192	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. AzocarRF	.360	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. LeonC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ConleySS	.429	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Compton1B	.222	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. MillerSS	.750	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
O. CareyOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Gil3B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. WorkingerLF	.400	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. ClohisyCF	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. HartmanOF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CamargoC	.143	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. JonesSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Groshans3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	0	6	0	0	1	8

Player

.100

.286

.429

.167

.192

.360

.000

.429

.222

.750

.000

.167

.400

.273

.200

.143

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RitchieSP	4.0	1	2	2	4	2	60
J. SuarezRP	2.2	5	5	5	2	2	55
B. AbeytaSP	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	7
R. FreyRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
Team	8.0	7	7	7	7	6	138

Player

4.0

2.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.231	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. BargerRF	.261	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
D. VarshoCF	.400	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	.095	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
N. LukesRF	.250	1	0	1	2	0	1	0
J. KasevichSS	.348	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Tirotta3B	.174	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
E. JimenezDH	.310	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. Lantigua2B	.524	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. ValenzuelaC	.375	1	1	1	3	1	0	0
C. McAdoo2B	.261	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. ClaseLF	.278	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mendoza3B	.467	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Y. PinangoLF	.095	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. NimmalaSS	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Keys3B	.190	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		29	7	7	7	2	7	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CeaseSP	3.0	2	0	0	0	3	54
T. NanceRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	15
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
T. RogersRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17
L. VarlandRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
B. LittleRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	18
C. SeaboldRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	26
Team	9.0	6	0	0	1	8	154

Team

ATL

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs ATL.