St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 10, 2026

FINAL+5NYM

STL

9-7-1

NYM

9-5-1

Clover Park · Port St. Lucie, Florida

5,557 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Christian ScottNYM
5.3± 2.9low

Hits

Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 0.8high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.9high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
A.J. EwingNYM
1.8± 2.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.8± 1.4high

RBIs

Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
A.J. EwingNYM
0.7± 0.9high
Mark VientosNYM
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

NYM

.717

OPS

◀

.718

.674

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.299

4.47

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.99

4.26

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.13

1.35

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

7.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

STL 1 · NYM 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
NYM	1	0	3	1	0	1	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. Scott IICF	.143	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Y. PozoC	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. VelazquezLF	.348	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
C. DavisCF	.240	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. Jordan3B	.038	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Mendoza2B	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RivasSS	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Moore2B	.182	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. MadrisOF	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. WeingartnerSS	.400	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. LinarezC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
I. PetrutzOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. ChoRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. HarrisSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. UguetoLF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. McGee3B	.429	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. EncarnacionSS	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		30	1	3	1	1	4	9

Player

.143

.333

.348

.240

.038

.286

.250

.182

.125

.400

.000

.000

.000

.000

.167

.429

1.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ShusterRP	3.0	7	4	4	0	4	55
R. O'BrienRP	0.2	0	1	1	4	0	27
E. NunezRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	10
P. NaughtonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
M. PushardRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	20
S. BlewettRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
A. LoveSP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	13
Team	8.0	14	6	6	4	7	145

Player

3.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Semien2B	.190	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Polanco1B	.333	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
B. BichetteSS	.263	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. Baty3B	.462	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
F. AlvarezC	.545	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
J. Rojas3B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. PacheOF	.474	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A.J. EwingCF	.375	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. CluffSS	.188	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
A. BarnesC	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Reimer3B	.214	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. BaeCF	.267	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
C. Collins1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. YoungSS	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BayRF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. JuanRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. VillavicencioSS	.222	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		35	6	14	6	2	4	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. PetersonSP	4.0	2	1	1	0	3	52
B. RaleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
C. ScottSP	3.0	1	0	0	4	4	47
B. HudsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
Team	9.0	3	1	1	4	9	126

Team

STL

NYM

—

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs STL.