Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 22, 2026

FINAL+1PIT

PIT

3-0

PHI

0-2

BayCare Ballpark · Clearwater, Florida

8,157 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.2%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8medium

Hits

Brandon MarshPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Bryce HarperPHI
1.3± 1.1high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Brandon MarshPHI
2.6± 2.9high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.6± 2.9medium
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 4.0high

RBIs

Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.0± 2.0high
Bryce HarperPHI
0.9± 1.0high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 1.4high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.1medium
Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

PHI

.754

OPS

◀

.719

.706

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.303

5.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.40

4.28

Team ERA

4.19

▶

4.12

1.31

WHIP

1.31

1.30

9.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 4 · PHI 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	4
PHI	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumLF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. GriffinSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Horwitz1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. Flores Jr.C	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
En. Valdez1B	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
E. ValdezRF	.500	2	1	2	4	1	1	0
T. Johnson2B	.500	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. BranniganSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. JebbLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. GonzalezOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. SanfordSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. BrethowrRF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
D. BergC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Moss1B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. PolancoOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Delgado2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Castillo3B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. TaylorCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	5	4	1	4	12

Player

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.500

.500

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

1.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. AshcraftSP	2.0	4	1	1	0	1	--
J. La SorsaRP	1.0	0	1	0	1	1	--
C. SandersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
N. DombkowskiRP	2.0	2	1	1	1	4	--
M. WalshRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
P. StumboP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
L. TomkinsP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
Team	9.0	8	3	2	2	11	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
K. SchwarberDH	.500	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. Harper1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	1.000	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Stott2B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. De La CruzOF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RojasCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. RinconSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. HettigerC	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
F. ReyesLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. DeMartiniSS	.333	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
D. NoriOF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. PintoC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Escobar2B	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. CampbellCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. LeonRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	3	8	3	2	2	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. RichardsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
Z. PopRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
K. BackhusRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
T. MayzaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
G. CabreraRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
J. HernándezRP	0.2	0	3	3	3	0	--
J. DallasP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	--
C. KingRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
G. VelasquezSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
A. CombsSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	5	4	4	4	12	0

Team

PIT

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs PIT.