Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 22, 2026

FINAL+8WSH

WSH

3-0

168

MIA

1-1

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

2,691 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Eury PerezMIA
6.0± 3.0low

Hits

Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.4± 1.2high
Liam HicksMIA
1.3± 0.7high
Otto LopezMIA
1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.7± 3.5high
Otto LopezMIA
2.2± 2.1high
Kyle StowersMIA
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
Griffin ConineMIA
0.7± 1.3medium
Javier SanojaMIA
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 2.9medium
Miles MikolasWSH
2.6± 3.0medium
Zack LittellWSH
2.4± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

MIA

.747

OPS

◀

.719

.724

.321

OBP

.319

▶

.326

5.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.45

4.63

Team ERA

4.19

▶

3.95

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 16 · MIA 8 (by 8)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	3	0	0	0	6	0	2	2	3	16
MIA	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Nunez2B	.500	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. WoodRF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	2	2
D. LileLF	.000	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
B. House3B	.500	4	2	2	4	2	0	1
H. FordC	.400	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
K. RuizC	.250	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
R. Hassell IIICF	.333	3	1	1	1	0	0	2
A. Chaparro1B	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	2	0
S. KingSS	.500	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
K. MadeSS	.333	2	1	1	1	0	1	1
L. PinedaRF	.000	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
J. RogersLF	.250	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
C. Wallace3B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Brown1B	.250	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
G. Dugas2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. LomavitaC	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. TejedaRF	.000	0	2	0	0	0	3	0
W. Bernabel3B	.667	3	2	2	1	0	0	0
R. DiazSS	.000	0	1	0	2	0	0	0
Team		39	16	14	14	2	13	12

Player

.500

.000

.000

.500

.400

.250

.333

1.000

.500

.333

.000

.250

.000

.250

.000

.500

.000

.667

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ParkerRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
J. RutledgeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
G. VarlandRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	--
B. Montes de OcaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
Z. PenrodRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
T. BaumDH	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
C. Van ScoyocRP	1.1	1	4	4	2	2	--
T. BivenUN	0.2	5	3	3	0	1	--
Team	9.0	10	8	8	5	13	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.2

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. Edwards2B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. StowersLF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. LopezSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. HicksC	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
O. CaissieRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. RuizRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
D. De Los Santos1B	1.000	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. Berry1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. LewisOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. O'DonnellCF	.500	2	1	1	4	1	0	1
C. Arroyo1B	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. SernaSS	.333	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
J. MackC	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. JonesCF	.333	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
A. PintarCF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
B. HostetlerC	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. OlmsteadSS	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. Snyder3B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		36	8	10	8	3	5	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AlcantaraSP	1.0	2	3	3	1	1	--
L. BacharRP	0.1	0	0	0	3	1	--
B. MendozaP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	--
T. ZuberRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	--
E. McKendrySP	1.0	5	4	4	0	1	--
L. MartinezSP	1.0	1	2	2	2	0	--
Ju. KingSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
S. VasquezP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	--
R. ShunckRP	0.2	1	2	2	3	1	--
D. StanavichRP	0.2	2	3	3	1	2	--
J. WalkinshawSP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	--
Team	9.0	14	16	16	13	12	0

Team

WSH

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs WSH.