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Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers
TOR
TOR
39-44
PregameSat, 7:05 PM EDT
TEX
TEX
41-42
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesTEX leads series 3-0
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.8%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TEX vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 93 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.5± 2.8low
- Nathan EovaldiTEX6.7± 2.1medium
- Jacob deGromTEX6.6± 2.5medium
Hits
- Wyatt LangfordTEX1.5± 0.9high
- Brandon NimmoTEX1.3± 1.0high
- Jake BurgerTEX1.0± 0.7high
Total bases
- Wyatt LangfordTEX2.9± 2.2high
- Kazuma OkamotoTOR2.2± 2.4high
- Brandon NimmoTEX2.1± 2.2high
RBIs
- Wyatt LangfordTEX0.9± 1.2high
- Kazuma OkamotoTOR0.9± 1.3high
- Luis UriasTOR0.7± 1.6low
Earned runs
- Kevin GausmanTOR3.0± 2.9medium
- Patrick CorbinTOR2.8± 1.7medium
- Jacob deGromTEX2.6± 2.9medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
TEX
.703
OPS
.718
▶.712
.311
OBP
.319
▶.320
4.11
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.06
4.17
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.98
1.32
WHIP
1.31
▶1.25
8.9
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.7
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant