Park factor
96 total idx
Citi Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Chicago Cubs at New York Mets
CHC
CHC
38-36
PregameThu, 7:10 PM EDT
NYM
NYM
32-41
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketCiti Field · Queens, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Colin Rea
SP · #53
5-5
W-L
5.35
ERA
1.46
WHIP
56
K
74.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@SFL(5-5)4.2 IP4 ER2 K
@COLL(5-4)4.2 IP7 ER2 K
vsATH-5.1 IP2 ER3 K
Home starter
Freddy Peralta
SP · #51
5-5
W-L
3.90
ERA
1.30
WHIP
81
K
83.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsATLW(5-5)5.0 IP1 ER2 K
vsSTLL(4-5)6.0 IP6 ER5 K
@SEAW(4-4)6.0 IP1 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesCHC lead series 3-0
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.1%
ensemble · CHC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYM vs CHC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 91 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Nolan McLeanNYM6.1± 2.7low
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.4± 2.8medium
- Freddy PeraltaNYM5.3± 2.9medium
Hits
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1.6± 1.4high
- Bo BichetteNYM1.3± 1.0high
- Michael BuschCHC1.0± 0.7high
Total bases
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC3.3± 3.6high
- Bo BichetteNYM2.3± 2.4high
- Juan SotoNYM1.9± 2.2high
RBIs
- Bo BichetteNYM0.8± 1.9high
- Seiya SuzukiCHC0.7± 1.2high
- Michael BuschCHC0.6± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Kodai SengaNYM4.0± 2.8low
- Edward CabreraCHC3.4± 2.6low
- Colin ReaCHC3.3± 2.3medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHC
league avg
NYM
.726
OPS
◀
.717
.665
.332
OBP
◀
.319
.296
4.54
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.99
4.24
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.99
1.25
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.27
8.0
K / 9
8.5
▶9.1
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
