Park factor
115 total idx
Coors Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Boston Red Sox at Colorado Rockies
BOS
BOS
29-41
PregameWed, 3:10 PM EDT
COL
COL
28-46
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketCoors Field · Denver, Colorado
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Ranger Suarez
SP · #55
2-3
W-L
3.21
ERA
1.17
WHIP
70
K
70.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTEX-5.0 IP2 ER7 K
@NYY-6.1 IP1 ER6 K
@CLE-5.0 IP4 ER10 K
Home starter
Kyle Freeland
SP · #21
1-7
W-L
7.98
ERA
1.70
WHIP
49
K
58.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATHL(1-7)5.2 IP6 ER4 K
vsMIL-5.0 IP3 ER2 K
@LAA-5.2 IP5 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 6/22
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.1%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
COL vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 89 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Payton TolleBOS6.0± 3.7low
- Ranger SuarezBOS5.7± 3.7low
- Connelly EarlyBOS5.2± 2.3low
Hits
- Willi CastroCOL1.4± 1.3high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.2± 1.0high
- Willson ContrerasBOS1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Willson ContrerasBOS2.6± 3.2high
- Cole CarriggCOL2.3± 2.8low
- Hunter GoodmanCOL2.2± 3.8high
RBIs
- Cole CarriggCOL1.0± 2.2low
- Willson ContrerasBOS0.9± 1.1high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS0.7± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Kyle FreelandCOL4.5± 3.2low
- Michael LorenzenCOL3.7± 3.0medium
- Jake BennettBOS3.0± 2.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BOS
league avg
COL
.697
OPS
.717
▶.729
.314
OBP
.319
▶.322
3.99
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.57
3.94
Team ERA
◀
4.17
5.57
1.29
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.53
8.6
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.4
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
