Park factor
95 total idx
T-Mobile Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
BOS
BOS
29-41
PregameSun, 4:10 PM EDT
SEA
SEA
38-36
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketT-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Payton Tolle
SP · #70
3-4
W-L
2.93
ERA
1.06
WHIP
60
K
58.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTORL(3-4)5.0 IP3 ER6 K
@TBL(3-3)6.0 IP4 ER3 K
vsBALW(3-2)6.0 IP0 ER5 K
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 6/19
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.1%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
122
projections · 84 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Logan GilbertSEA6.1± 2.7medium
- Payton TolleBOS6.0± 3.7low
- Bryce MillerSEA6.0± 3.0low
Hits
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.2± 1.0high
- Cole YoungSEA1.2± 0.9high
- Willson ContrerasBOS1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Willson ContrerasBOS2.6± 3.2high
- Dominic CanzoneSEA2.1± 2.7high
- J.P. CrawfordSEA2.0± 2.9high
RBIs
- Willson ContrerasBOS0.9± 1.1high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS0.7± 1.3high
- Wilyer AbreuBOS0.6± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Bryan WooSEA3.1± 3.9low
- Jake BennettBOS3.0± 2.3low
- George KirbySEA2.8± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BOS
league avg
SEA
.697
OPS
.717
▶.712
.314
OBP
.319
.317
3.99
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.24
3.94
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.65
1.29
WHIP
1.31
▶1.19
8.6
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
