MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TOR

35-38

PregameSun, 2:20 PM EDT

CHC

38-36

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Dylan Cease

SP · #84

4-3

W-L

2.71

ERA

1.19

WHIP

110

73.0

Last 3 starts

@BOSW(4-3)5.0 IP0 ER7 K

vsPHI-6.0 IP1 ER11 K

vsPITL(3-3)4.2 IP2 ER8 K

Home starter

Shota Imanaga

SP · #18

4-6

W-L

4.26

ERA

1.06

WHIP

86.2

Last 3 starts

vsCOL-5.2 IP1 ER3 K

@COL-5.0 IP0 ER7 K

vsATH-6.0 IP6 ER5 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 6/19

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4± 3.0low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.4± 2.4medium

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.4high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.1± 0.8high
Michael BuschCHC
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.3± 3.6high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.8± 1.6high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.7± 1.2high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.7± 0.7high
Michael BuschCHC
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Edward CabreraCHC
3.4± 2.6low
Colin ReaCHC
3.3± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

CHC

.704

OPS

.717

▶

.726

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.332

4.10

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

4.08

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.24

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league