MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

37-35

PregameSun, 2:35 PM EDT

TEX

35-38

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Lucas Giolito

SP · #55

2-2

W-L

4.56

ERA

1.79

WHIP

25.2

Last 3 starts

@STLL(2-2)5.0 IP3 ER2 K

vsCIN-4.0 IP1 ER3 K

@PHIL(2-1)4.0 IP2 ER5 K

Home starter

MacKenzie Gore

SP · #1

4-6

W-L

4.27

ERA

1.31

WHIP

78.0

Last 3 starts

vsMINL(4-6)7.0 IP4 ER10 K

@KC-5.0 IP2 ER6 K

@STLL(4-5)4.2 IP4 ER5 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesTEX wins series 2-0

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 3.2low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.7low
Jack LeiterTEX
5.6± 3.6low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.2high
Samad TaylorSD
1.2± 1.1low
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jake BurgerTEX
1.8± 1.8high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.7± 1.8high
Samad TaylorSD
1.7± 2.4low

RBIs

Samad TaylorSD
0.9± 1.7low
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
0.5± 0.8high
Gavin SheetsSD
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 3.1low
Jack LeiterTEX
3.0± 2.6low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

TEX

.647

OPS

.717

▶

.696

.289

OBP

.319

▶

.315

3.81

Runs / G

4.50

▶

3.96

3.89

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.85

1.29

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.4

K / 9

8.5

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league