MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

CLE

39-34

PregameSun, 2:10 PM EDT

HOU

34-41

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Slade Cecconi

SP · #44

3-5

W-L

4.60

ERA

1.40

WHIP

78.1

Last 3 starts

@MIL-5.2 IP1 ER4 K

vsNYY-5.0 IP2 ER7 K

@NYY-6.0 IP1 ER4 K

Home starter

Spencer Arrighetti

SP · #41

7-2

W-L

2.57

ERA

1.22

WHIP

63.0

Last 3 starts

@KCL(7-2)6.0 IP4 ER7 K

@LAA-6.0 IP3 ER7 K

vsPIT-4.0 IP4 ER3 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesHOU leads series 2-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
8.0± 1.4low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low

Hits

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.4± 1.0high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.1± 0.8high
Austin HedgesCLE
0.9± 0.7high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 2.6high
Christian WalkerHOU
1.8± 1.6high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.9± 2.2high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.6± 1.1high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.6low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.8± 2.8low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

HOU

.685

OPS

.717

▶

.728

.316

OBP

.319

.318

3.97

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.53

3.73

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.91

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.