Park factor
96 total idx
Tropicana Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays
WSH
WSH
39-35
PregameSun, 1:40 PM EDT
TB
TB
41-29
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Andrew Alvarez
RP · #54
1-0
W-L
3.49
ERA
1.45
WHIP
31
K
28.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsKC-4.0 IP1 ER5 K
@SF-4.0 IP2 ER4 K
vsMIA-4.2 IP1 ER5 K
Home starter
Nick Martinez
SP · #28
6-2
W-L
2.60
ERA
1.16
WHIP
50
K
83.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@LAD-5.1 IP3 ER6 K
vsBOSW(6-2)7.0 IP3 ER2 K
vsDETL(5-2)4.0 IP6 ER1 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 6/19
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.1%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TB vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 98 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Drew RasmussenTB6.2± 4.0low
- Cade CavalliWSH5.9± 3.5medium
- Foster GriffinWSH5.6± 2.1medium
Hits
- James WoodWSH1.3± 1.0high
- Yandy DiazTB1.1± 1.1high
- CJ AbramsWSH1.1± 1.0high
Total bases
- James WoodWSH2.3± 2.2high
- CJ AbramsWSH1.8± 1.8high
- Yandy DiazTB1.7± 1.6high
RBIs
- Ryan ViladeTB0.7± 1.1high
- Yandy DiazTB0.7± 0.9high
- CJ AbramsWSH0.7± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Zack LittellWSH2.6± 2.6low
- Steven MatzTB2.5± 2.5low
- Cade CavalliWSH2.3± 1.0medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
WSH
league avg
TB
.748
OPS
◀
.717
.714
.324
OBP
.319
▶.333
5.47
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.44
4.63
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.92
1.38
WHIP
1.31
▶1.23
7.7
K / 9
8.5
▶8.0
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
