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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
NYM
NYM
32-41
PregameSun, 7:20 PM EDT
PHI
PHI
40-33
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
Zack Wheeler
SP · #45
6-1
W-L
2.01
ERA
0.85
WHIP
62
K
62.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIAW(6-1)6.0 IP0 ER9 K
@TOR-6.0 IP1 ER5 K
vsSDW(5-1)7.0 IP2 ER8 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 6/18
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.1%
ensemble · NYM favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHI vs NYM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 92 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cristopher SanchezPHI7.7± 3.4medium
- Jesus LuzardoPHI6.4± 2.8medium
- Zack WheelerPHI6.2± 2.6low
Hits
- Bo BichetteNYM1.3± 1.0high
- Brandon MarshPHI1.1± 1.1high
- Carson BengeNYM1.0± 1.5high
Total bases
- Bo BichetteNYM2.3± 2.4high
- Brandon MarshPHI2.1± 2.3high
- Juan SotoNYM1.9± 2.2high
RBIs
- Alec BohmPHI0.9± 1.2high
- Bo BichetteNYM0.8± 1.9high
- Bryson StottPHI0.7± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Kodai SengaNYM4.0± 2.8low
- Andrew PainterPHI3.7± 2.9low
- Aaron NolaPHI3.5± 2.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYM
league avg
PHI
.665
OPS
.717
▶.686
.296
OBP
.319
.297
3.99
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.11
3.99
Team ERA
4.17
4.02
1.27
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.30
9.1
K / 9
8.5
▶9.5
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
