MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

CHW

38-33

PregameSun, 1:40 PM EDT

DET

30-43

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Davis Martin

SP · #65

9-3

W-L

3.31

ERA

1.19

WHIP

81.2

Last 3 starts

@NYYL(9-3)3.1 IP9 ER4 K

vsATLW(9-2)6.0 IP0 ER6 K

@MINL(8-2)4.2 IP6 ER2 K

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesCHW lead series 3-0

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Davis MartinCHW
6.2± 3.1low
Tarik SkubalDET
6.1± 2.9low
Sean BurkeCHW
5.4± 2.3low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.4high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.2± 1.3high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.3± 3.5high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.8± 1.9high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
1.7± 3.0low

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 1.2high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
0.7± 1.6low
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.4medium
Anthony KayCHW
2.5± 3.4low
Erick FeddeCHW
2.4± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

DET

.733

OPS

◀

.717

.709

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.72

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.10

4.39

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.90

1.33

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

8.3

K / 9

8.5

8.3

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league