Park factor
95 total idx
Oakland Coliseum run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Los Angeles Angels at Athletics
LAA
LAA
30-44
PregameSat, 10:05 PM EDT
ATH
ATH
36-37
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketSutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Walbert Urena
SP · #57
4-5
W-L
2.60
ERA
1.35
WHIP
58
K
62.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@ARIL(4-5)7.0 IP3 ER3 K
vsHOUW(4-4)5.0 IP0 ER7 K
vsCOLW(3-4)6.0 IP3 ER7 K
Home starter
J.T. Ginn
SP · #35
5-3
W-L
2.91
ERA
1.16
WHIP
68
K
77.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsPITW(5-3)6.0 IP0 ER3 K
vsMILW(4-3)5.2 IP5 ER5 K
@CHC-6.0 IP1 ER8 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesATH wins series 3-1
TypePreseason Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.1%
ensemble · LAA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATH vs LAA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 80 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Reid DetmersLAA7.0± 4.0low
- Jose SorianoLAA5.6± 1.9medium
- Gage JumpATH4.8± 1.7low
Hits
- Jo AdellLAA1.4± 1.5high
- Nick KurtzATH1.2± 1.1high
- Shea LangeliersATH1.2± 0.8high
Total bases
- Nick KurtzATH2.9± 3.4high
- Shea LangeliersATH2.5± 2.6high
- Tyler SoderstromATH2.2± 3.0high
RBIs
- Nick KurtzATH1.2± 1.6high
- Tyler SoderstromATH0.8± 1.3high
- Denzer GuzmanLAA0.8± 1.6low
Earned runs
- Luis MoralesATH5.0± 0.3low
- Jeffrey SpringsATH3.2± 1.8medium
- Reid DetmersLAA2.6± 3.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAA
league avg
ATH
.714
OPS
.717
▶.751
.319
OBP
.319
▶.331
4.50
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.60
4.55
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.81
1.42
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.44
8.8
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.2
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
