MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

WSH

39-35

PregameSat, 4:10 PM EDT

41-29

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Tropicana Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Miles Mikolas

SP · #36

2-5

W-L

5.29

ERA

1.25

WHIP

68.0

Last 3 starts

vsSEAW(2-5)7.0 IP0 ER3 K

@SF-4.2 IP0 ER2 K

vsMIAL(1-5)6.0 IP6 ER4 K

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 6/19

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Cade CavalliWSH
5.9± 3.5medium
Foster GriffinWSH
5.4± 2.7low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.3high
James WoodWSH
1.3± 1.0high
Daylen LileWSH
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

James WoodWSH
2.6± 2.3high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.0± 2.5high
Daylen LileWSH
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.1± 1.8high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high
Dylan CrewsWSH
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Zack LittellWSH
2.6± 2.6low
Steven MatzTB
2.5± 2.5low
Cade CavalliWSH
2.3± 1.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

.748

OPS

◀

.717

.714

.324

OBP

.319

▶

.333

5.47

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.44

4.63

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.92

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.23

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league