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Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees
CIN
CIN
35-37
PregameSat, 1:35 PM EDT
NYY
NYY
44-27
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Andrew Abbott
SP · #41
4-4
W-L
3.95
ERA
1.41
WHIP
58
K
79.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsARI-5.0 IP1 ER5 K
@SDL(4-4)6.0 IP3 ER6 K
vsKC-6.0 IP3 ER5 K
Home starter
Will Warren
SP · #29
7-1
W-L
3.47
ERA
1.29
WHIP
76
K
72.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@TOR-4.0 IP2 ER1 K
@CLE-4.1 IP3 ER5 K
@ATHW(7-1)6.0 IP0 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 6/19
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.1%
ensemble · CIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYY vs CIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 80 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chase BurnsCIN7.1± 2.8low
- Ryan WeathersNYY6.3± 3.9low
- Cam SchlittlerNYY6.2± 2.1medium
Hits
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY1.2± 0.8high
- Blake DunnCIN1.1± 0.9high
- Ben RiceNYY1.0± 0.9high
Total bases
- JJ BledayCIN2.1± 1.8high
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY2.0± 1.3high
- Ben RiceNYY1.9± 2.0high
RBIs
- Eugenio SuarezCIN0.8± 1.8high
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY0.8± 1.0high
- JJ BledayCIN0.7± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Chris PaddackCIN3.2± 2.4low
- Nick LodoloCIN3.1± 1.8low
- Ryan WeathersNYY3.0± 3.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CIN
league avg
NYY
.710
OPS
.717
▶.770
.313
OBP
.319
▶.332
4.31
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.21
4.59
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.30
1.46
WHIP
1.31
▶1.18
8.0
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
