MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

BAL

34-40

PregameFri, 10:10 PM EDT

LAD

47-27

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Trey Gibson

SP · #43

1-2

W-L

5.91

ERA

1.59

WHIP

21.1

Last 3 starts

vsSDL(1-2)4.1 IP6 ER7 K

vsSEAL(1-1)4.2 IP3 ER0 K

vsTBW(1-0)5.2 IP1 ER1 K

Home starter

Roki Sasaki

SP · #11

3-4

W-L

4.76

ERA

1.33

WHIP

62.1

Last 3 starts

@CHWL(3-4)4.1 IP7 ER4 K

vsLAA-7.0 IP0 ER10 K

vsPHI-5.1 IP1 ER7 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 6/19

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAD vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.7± 3.9low
Roki SasakiLAD
5.4± 3.1low

Hits

Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.2± 1.0high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.2± 1.0high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.0high
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.2± 2.4high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.0± 1.6high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 0.9high
Ryan WardLAD
0.9± 1.7low

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Trey GibsonBAL
2.8± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

LAD

.723

OPS

.717

▶

.785

.322

OBP

.319

▶

.344

4.65

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.28

4.57

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.32

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.08

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

LAD vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league