MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL

DET

30-42

CLE

39-33

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open -1.5 · +3.0

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CLE no-vig %

51.1%

open 53.2% · -2.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
59.6%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.4%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.1%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.70

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-126

Close price

-117

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

51.5%

Market faded the model hard

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.8pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

DET

no live price

CLE

★ best

-110DraftKings

edge +10.8pp · implied 50.0%

Book	DET	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	-110	-110★	+10.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Tarik SkubalDET
6.1± 2.9low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.4high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.2± 1.3high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.6± 3.4high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.8± 1.9high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.0± 1.6high
Colt KeithDET
0.6± 2.0high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Framber ValdezDET
2.8± 2.6low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

CLE

.712

OPS

◀

.717

.689

.316

OBP

.319

.317

4.13

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

3.93

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.75

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 0 · CLE 0 (tied)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant