MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8LAA

40-27

LAA

29-42

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

34,030 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

LAA no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.0%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
38.6%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.7%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
39.5%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.08

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.4pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

★ best

-123DraftKings

edge +8.4pp · implied 51.9%

LAA

no live price

Book	TB	LAA	Best edge
DraftKings	-123★	-105	+8.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAA vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Jose SorianoLAA
5.6± 1.9medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.2high
Jo AdellLAA
1.2± 1.6high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.0± 1.6low

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
1.9± 1.6high
Jo AdellLAA
1.7± 2.4high
Zach NetoLAA
1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.0± 1.9low
Trey ManciniLAA
1.0± 1.1low
Jose SiriLAA
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.2± 3.8low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.6± 3.0low
Steven MatzTB
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

LAA

.720

OPS

◀

.717

.708

.336

OBP

◀

.319

4.53

Runs / G

4.50

4.49

3.95

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.62

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

TB 0 · LAA 8 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
LAA	0	0	0	1	0	3	4	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Y. DiazDH	.325	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Aranda1B	.269	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. MullinsCF	.194	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.273	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
C. SimpsonLF	.267	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.230	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.162	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
H. FeducciaC	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. WallsSS	.219	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
Team		31	0	5	0	0	4	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.325

.269

.194

.273

.267

.230

.162

.250

.219

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
G. JaxRP	5.0	5	1	0	0	5	63
G. CleavingerRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	1	10
C. KimbrelRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	17
C. SulserRP	0.2	5	4	4	1	2	39
C. BooserRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	24
Team	8.0	15	8	7	2	11	153

Player

5.0

0.1

0.2

0.2

1.1

Team

8.0

153

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Z. NetoSS	.228	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. TroutCF	.225	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
W. MecklerLF	.305	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. AdellRF	.249	5	3	4	0	0	0	0
N. Schanuel1B	.260	4	2	2	0	0	1	1
O. Peraza2B	.261	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. GuzmanSS	.222	4	1	2	3	0	0	0
D. Walton3B	.294	4	0	3	2	0	0	0
L. O'HoppeC	.221	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. SiriLF	.333	2	1	1	2	1	1	1
Team		39	8	15	7	1	2	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. SorianoSP	5.0	3	0	0	2	5	76
S. Natera Jr.SP	2.0	0	0	0	2	2	29
B. SuterRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	16
K. YatesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	9.0	5	0	0	4	8	130

Team

LAA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

LAA vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

LAA vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.