MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2ATH

COL

26-45

ATH

35-35

Las Vegas Ballpark · Las Vegas, Nevada

8,532 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 14.0

open O/U 13.5 · +0.5

ATH no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.3% · +0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.4%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
65.3%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.9%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.6%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.50

CLV pp

Open price

-171

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

60.3%

Close no-vig

60.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.3pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

COL

no live price

ATH

★ best

-237DraftKings

edge +2.3pp · implied 66.1%

Book	COL	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	+177	-237★	+2.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATH vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gage JumpATH
4.8± 1.7low
J.T. GinnATH
4.8± 3.0medium
Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.3± 1.5medium

Hits

Willi CastroCOL
1.4± 1.3high
Nick KurtzATH
1.3± 1.0high
Zack GelofATH
1.3± 0.7high

Total bases

Nick KurtzATH
3.0± 3.3high
Zack GelofATH
2.5± 2.0high
Cole CarriggCOL
2.3± 2.8low

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
1.2± 1.6high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.0± 2.2low
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Luis MoralesATH
5.0± 0.3low
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5± 3.2low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

ATH

.729

OPS

.717

▶

.751

.322

OBP

.319

▶

.331

4.57

Runs / G

4.50

4.60

5.57

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.81

1.53

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.44

7.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

COL 5 · ATH 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	5
ATH	2	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. Julien2B	.228	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
W. Castro2B	.266	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
T. Rumfield1B	.278	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. JohnstonRF	.316	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
C. CarriggCF	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Karros3B	.234	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
B. SullivanC	.229	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
S. ThompsonRF	.214	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. McCarthyCF	.282	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	5	8	4	1	4	7

Player

.228

.266

.278

.236

.316

.211

.234

.229

.214

.282

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. FreelandSP	5.2	10	6	6	0	4	95
J. HillRP	0.1	1	1	1	2	0	16
S. HalvorsenRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	25
J. MejiaRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	18
Team	8.0	11	7	7	3	6	154

Player

5.2

0.1

0.2

1.1

Team

8.0

154

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ThomasRF	.246	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Kurtz1B	.285	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
S. LangeliersC	.281	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. HeimC	.229	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. WilsonSS	.286	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
H. BolteCF	.310	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
Z. Gelof3B	.271	4	2	2	2	1	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.234	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. WilliamsSS	.278	3	1	3	1	0	1	0
T. SoderstromLF	.237	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. CortesRF	.306	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
L. ButlerRF	.174	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	7	11	7	1	3	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. EstesSP	4.1	5	4	4	1	4	71
J. SuarezRP	1.2	2	1	1	2	0	22
S. BarlowRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	12
M. Leiter Jr.RP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
E. AlvaradoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	19
Team	9.0	8	5	5	4	7	137

Team

COL

ATH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATH vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.