MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CHC

CHC

37-34

28-43

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

35,142 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SF no-vig %

46.9%

open 45.8% · +1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.8%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
55.7%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.2%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.8%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.90

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

46.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

SF vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.8± 2.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium
Logan WebbSF
5.3± 1.8low

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.4high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.6± 1.4high
Bryce EldridgeSF
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.1± 3.7high
Matt ChapmanSF
2.6± 3.6high
Bryce EldridgeSF
2.4± 2.1high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 2.4high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.7± 1.2high
Bryce EldridgeSF
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Colin ReaCHC
3.3± 2.3medium
Edward CabreraCHC
3.2± 2.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.1± 3.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

.726

OPS

.717

.725

.332

OBP

◀

.319

.309

4.58

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.11

4.23

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.52

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.0

K / 9

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 6 · SF 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	1	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	0	6
SF	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.263	5	2	3	1	1	0	2
A. Bregman3B	.246	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Busch1B	.253	3	1	1	1	0	2	0
S. SuzukiRF	.255	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
I. HappLF	.227	5	1	1	1	1	0	2
N. Hoerner2B	.240	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Ramirez2B	.250	5	1	2	1	1	0	2
M. AmayaC	.219	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. SwansonSS	.176	4	1	0	0	0	1	3
M. ShawRF	.245	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		38	6	11	5	3	4	12

Player

.263

.246

.253

.255

.227

.240

.250

.219

.176

.245

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BrownRP	5.0	7	1	1	3	3	86
E. RobertsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	20
C. ThielbarRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	23
P. MatonRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	21
Team	9.0	7	1	1	4	7	150

Player

5.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

Team

9.0

150

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Arraez2B	.324	5	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. EldridgeDH	.317	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. SchmittDH	.272	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. Devers1B	.234	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. LeeRF	.328	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. AdamesSS	.232	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Chapman3B	.260	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
D. GilbertCF	.226	0	1	0	0	0	3	0
E. HaaseC	.216	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	1	7	1	0	4	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. McDonaldSP	3.2	6	4	4	3	4	92
R. SanmartinRP	1.1	2	2	2	1	2	30
S. HentgesRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17
R. WalkerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
D. SmithRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	22
C. KilianRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
Team	9.0	11	6	6	4	12	187

Team

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

SF vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

SF vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.