Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 13, 2026

FINAL+3BOS

TEX

34-36

BOS

29-39

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

34,556 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

BOS no-vig %

52.2%

open 51.7% · +0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.6%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
49.9%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.8%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.7%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.96

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

47.3%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.2pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

TEX

★ best

+117DraftKings

edge +11.2pp · implied 43.2%

BOS

no live price

Book	TEX	BOS	Best edge
DraftKings	+117★	-153	+11.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BOS vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 3.2low
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.7low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.7low

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.2± 1.0high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.1± 1.1high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Willson ContrerasBOS
2.3± 3.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.9± 2.5high
Jake BurgerTEX
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.7± 1.3high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.7± 1.1high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
3.0± 2.6low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.9± 2.8low
Jake BennettBOS
2.7± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

BOS

.696

OPS

.718

.695

.315

OBP

.319

.314

3.96

Runs / G

4.50

3.93

3.85

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.92

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

TEX 3 · BOS 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	3
BOS	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	2	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. LangfordLF	.241	5	0	3	1	0	0	1
J. Foscue2B	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.307	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
E. Duran2B	.288	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
J. Burger1B	.248	3	1	1	1	1	1	2
C. Freeman3B	.333	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
M. HelmanCF	.167	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
E. DiazC	.385	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Lopez2B	.317	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. PedersonDH	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. HigashiokaC	.225	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. NimmoRF	.254	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	3	10	3	1	2	12

Player

.241

.235

.307

.288

.248

.333

.167

.385

.317

.240

.225

.254

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. deGromSP	6.0	6	2	2	0	5	90
C. WinnRP	0.2	2	2	2	0	2	18
R. AhlstromRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	19
P. GrayRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	19
Team	8.0	11	6	6	1	8	146

Player

6.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

146

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GasperC	.274	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.291	4	0	2	2	0	0	1
W. AbreuRF	.280	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
W. Contreras1B	.292	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. DuranLF	.210	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
C. Durbin3B	.197	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.274	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
M. Mayer2B	.220	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
C. NarvaezC	.212	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. MonasterioSS	.243	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		34	6	11	6	1	1	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. SuarezSP	5.0	6	2	2	2	7	97
J. SlatenRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
T. GuerreroRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	1	18
D. CoulombeRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	6
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
Team	9.0	10	3	3	2	12	163

Team

TEX

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BOS vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

BOS vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.