MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5WSH

SEA

37-35

WSH

36-35

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

30,004 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

WSH no-vig %

50.5%

open 50.0% · +0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
51.2%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.4%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.9%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.3pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best

+422DraftKings

edge +32.3pp · implied 18.0%

WSH

no live price

Book	SEA	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	+422★	-690	+32.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.1± 2.7medium
Bryce MillerSEA
6.0± 3.0low
Cade CavalliWSH
5.9± 3.5medium

Hits

James WoodWSH
1.3± 1.0high
Cole YoungSEA
1.2± 0.9high
J.P. CrawfordSEA
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

James WoodWSH
2.3± 2.2high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.1± 2.7high
J.P. CrawfordSEA
2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 0.8high
Curtis MeadWSH
0.7± 1.1high
Dylan CrewsWSH
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low
Luis CastilloSEA
2.6± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

WSH

.712

OPS

.717

▶

.748

.317

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.24

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.47

3.65

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.63

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

SEA 3 · WSH 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked WSH +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	3
WSH	3	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Young2B	.261	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.252	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Naylor1B	.252	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. RaleyRF	.246	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CanzoneDH	.285	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
V. RoblesRF	.275	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Mastrobuoni3B	.231	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. GarverC	.200	4	1	2	1	0	0	2
C. Emerson3B	.233	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
R. RefsnyderDH	.148	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	3	8	3	1	3	8

Player

.261

.252

.252

.246

.285

.275

.231

.200

.233

.148

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CastilloSP	5.2	7	5	2	2	4	84
G. SpeierRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
J. FerrerRP	0.1	2	3	3	1	0	10
E. BazardoRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	15
A. HoppeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
Team	8.0	10	8	5	3	7	126

Player

5.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

1.0

Team

8.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.274	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.260	3	2	1	2	1	0	0
C. Mead1B	.234	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. AbramsSS	.291	4	2	3	2	0	0	0
D. LileLF	.263	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
D. CrewsRF	.192	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
J. TenaDH	.219	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
D. MillasC	.175	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Nunez2B	.200	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. YoungCF	.233	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Chaparro1B	.172	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	8	10	7	1	3	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CavalliSP	5.0	4	3	3	0	5	81
P. PoulinRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	15
O. RibaltaRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	11
R. LoveladyRP	0.2	3	0	0	1	0	20
B. LordRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	23
Team	9.0	8	3	3	3	8	150

Team

SEA

WSH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

WSH vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.