MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6SD

36-33

BAL

34-38

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

25,722 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

BAL no-vig %

54.2%

open 53.2% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.2%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
48.6%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.8%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.4%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.89 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.02

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.1pp

best edge · BAL · DraftKings

no live price

BAL

★ best

+159DraftKings

edge +8.1pp · implied 36.3%

Book	SD	BAL	Best edge
DraftKings	-211	+159★	+8.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BAL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.1low
Michael KingSD
5.2± 2.9low
Griffin CanningSD
4.9± 2.2low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.2high
Samad TaylorSD
1.3± 1.2low
Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.2± 2.4high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.9± 2.9high
Samad TaylorSD
1.8± 2.6low

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.0± 1.6high
Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.8low
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 0.9high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 3.1low
Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Trey GibsonBAL
2.8± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

BAL

.652

OPS

.717

▶

.728

.291

OBP

.319

▶

.324

3.83

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.70

3.90

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.59

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 9 · BAL 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	4	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1	9
BAL	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.279	4	1	1	0	0	1	3
J. MerrillCF	.203	4	1	1	2	1	1	1
M. Machado3B	.178	5	2	1	1	1	0	0
X. BogaertsSS	.231	1	2	0	0	0	1	1
G. Sheets1B	.230	4	1	1	1	1	1	1
S. TaylorLF	.375	5	1	3	3	1	0	0
W. Wagner3B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. BowenRF	.143	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. FerminC	.148	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
S. Song2B	.190	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Solak1B	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. DuranC	.133	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		35	9	10	9	5	6	8

Player

.279

.203

.178

.231

.230

.375

.500

.143

.148

.190

.500

.133

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. VasquezSP	5.0	6	2	2	2	5	100
Y. MatsuiRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	14
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	16
J. AdamRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16
R. MarinaccioRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	4
A. MorejonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	9.0	10	3	3	3	7	152

Player

R. VasquezSP

5.0

100

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

9.0

152

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WardLF	.259	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. HendersonSS	.224	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
P. Alonso1B	.252	5	1	3	2	1	0	1
S. BasalloC	.258	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
L. TaverasCF	.258	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
C. CowserRF	.221	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. O'NeillRF	.190	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Holliday2B	.203	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Alexander3B	.297	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
C. Mayo3B	.196	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		35	3	10	3	1	3	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GibsonSP	4.1	3	6	6	5	7	93
K. AkinRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	12
A. SuarezRP	4.0	6	3	3	0	1	38
Team	9.0	10	9	9	6	8	143

Team

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BAL vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

BAL vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.