MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PIT

MIA

35-36

PIT

36-35

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

31,192 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

PIT no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.3% · -0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.6%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
45.4%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.3%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.3%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.96 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+4.32

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+114

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

44.7%

Close no-vig

49.0%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+22.7pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best

+173DraftKings

edge +22.7pp · implied 34.4%

PIT

no live price

Book	MIA	PIT	Best edge
DraftKings	+173★	-231	+22.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PIT vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.8medium
Max MeyerMIA
6.6± 1.8medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.9low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.4± 1.0high
Liam HicksMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.0± 1.8high
Liam HicksMIA
1.9± 2.1high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

Joe MackMIA
0.7± 1.0high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.7± 1.0high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.0medium
Jared JonesPIT
3.0± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

PIT

.702

OPS

.717

▶

.736

.322

OBP

.319

▶

.334

4.25

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.95

4.11

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.26

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

8.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

MIA 2 · PIT 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
PIT	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. HicksC	.272	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
O. LopezSS	.345	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
X. Edwards2B	.300	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. StowersLF	.216	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. HernandezLF	.236	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
L. Jimenez3B	.191	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. MarseeCF	.203	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Sanoja3B	.255	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Norby1B	.210	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
E. RuizRF	.214	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	7	2	0	2	10

Player

.272

.345

.300

.216

.236

.191

.203

.255

.210

.214

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BacharRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	4	42
J. KingRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	11
C. FaucherRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	15
C. GibsonRP	1.1	2	0	0	1	1	22
M. PetersenRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	29
A. BenderRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	27
Team	8.0	8	3	3	4	11	146

Player

2.0

0.2

1.0

1.1

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

146

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. Horwitz1B	.286	3	2	1	1	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.245	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.265	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. O'HearnRF	.282	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
N. Gonzales3B	.296	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. RodriguezC	.231	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
T. CallihanLF	.350	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. MangumLF	.296	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. TrioloSS	.226	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
B. CookRF	.190	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	8	3	0	4	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ChandlerSP	5.2	3	2	2	1	6	84
M. MontgomeryRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	15
Y. RamirezRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	23
G. SotoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	7	2	2	2	10	135

Team

MIA

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PIT vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.