MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CLE

DET

29-42

CLE

39-33

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

32,683 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CLE no-vig %

41.7%

open 42.8% · -1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
59.7%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.8%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.26

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

41.6%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.7pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

DET

no live price

CLE

★ best

-126DraftKings

edge +8.7pp · implied 52.4%

Book	DET	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	-103	-126★	+8.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Tarik SkubalDET
6.1± 2.9low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.4high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.2± 1.3high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.3± 3.5high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.8± 1.9high
Colt KeithDET
1.7± 3.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 1.2high
Colt KeithDET
0.6± 2.0high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.4medium
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.9low
Joey CantilloCLE
2.5± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

CLE

.709

OPS

◀

.717

.685

.316

OBP

.319

.316

4.10

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.97

3.90

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.73

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

DET 1 · CLE 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
CLE	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. Torres2B	.282	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
K. McGonigleSS	.277	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. VierlingCF	.205	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. DinglerC	.254	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
R. GreeneLF	.297	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. JonesDH	.136	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.209	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
W. PerezRF	.184	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. Lee2B	.212	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. CarpenterRF	.237	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.257	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.178	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	1	9	1	0	2	10

Player

.282

.277

.205

.254

.297

.136

.209

.184

.212

.237

.257

.333

.178

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. SkubalSP	4.2	5	3	2	1	4	80
K. FinneganRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	15
T. HoltonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	6
K. JansenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
Team	8.0	8	3	2	1	6	110

Player

4.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

110

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinezLF	.239	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Ramirez3B	.239	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. DeLauterRF	.263	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Hoskins1B	.185	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. FryRF	.237	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Bazzana2B	.252	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
S. FairchildRF	.250	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
A. HedgesC	.269	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.274	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. KwanCF	.215	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.239	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. SchneemannCF	.229	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
C. SmithRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	8	2	1	1	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CantilloSP	5.0	6	1	1	0	4	79
C. HoldermanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
H. GaddisRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17
T. HerrinRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	13
C. SmithRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	31
Team	9.0	9	1	1	2	10	155

Team

DET

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.