MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2ATL

ATL

46-24

NYM

31-39

Citi Field · Queens, New York

38,269 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYM no-vig %

50.4%

open 50.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
42.3%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.2%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.1pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

ATL

no live price

NYM

★ best

+145DraftKings

edge +3.1pp · implied 38.3%

Book	ATL	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	-191	+145★	+3.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYM vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1± 2.7low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.3± 2.9medium

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.3± 1.2high
Matt OlsonATL
1.2± 0.9high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.4± 2.7high
Bo BichetteNYM
2.4± 2.5high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Bo BichetteNYM
0.9± 2.0high
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Nolan McLeanNYM
2.7± 2.9low
David PetersonNYM
2.6± 3.7low
Bryce ElderATL
2.4± 2.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

NYM

.744

OPS

◀

.717

.665

.320

OBP

◀

.319

.294

5.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

3.29

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.85

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.27

8.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 3 · NYM 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	3
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. DubonSS	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Harris IICF	.303	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
O. Albies2B	.284	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.270	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. Riley3B	.206	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. WhiteCF	.244	4	1	3	2	1	0	0
J. MateoSS	.290	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. KimSS	.089	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. LeonC	.077	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. SmithDH	.288	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.234	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	3	7	3	2	0	10

Player

AVG

RBI

.259

.303

.284

.270

.206

.244

.290

.089

.077

.288

.234

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. PerezSP	5.1	4	1	1	1	4	71
D. LeeRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	7
D. FuentesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
R. SuarezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	16
Team	9.0	6	1	1	2	10	121

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

121

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. BengeRF	.253	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Bichette3B	.236	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. SotoLF	.287	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. Vientos1B	.212	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. Semien2B	.218	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
F. AlvarezC	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Wagaman1B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. MelendezDH	.208	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
V. BrujanSS	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Baty3B	.224	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Young1B	.268	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A.J. EwingCF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	6	1	0	2	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. ManaeaRP	6.0	4	2	2	0	6	84
A. WarrenRP	2.0	3	1	1	0	3	40
D. DuarteRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	7	3	3	0	10	137

Team

ATL

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYM vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

NYM vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.