Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 13, 2026

FINAL+1CIN

ARI

35-35

CIN

33-36

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

27,563 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CIN no-vig %

44.8%

open 44.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.7%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
52.2%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.4%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.3%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.19

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.8pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

ARI

no live price

CIN

★ best

+119DraftKings

edge +6.8pp · implied 43.6%

Book	ARI	CIN	Best edge
DraftKings	-144	+119★	+6.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CIN vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.1± 2.8low
Michael SorokaARI
5.3± 2.8low
Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.6± 1.5medium

Hits

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.2± 0.9high
Ketel MarteARI
1.2± 0.9high
Blake DunnCIN
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Corbin CarrollARI
2.1± 1.9high
Gabriel MorenoARI
2.1± 1.8high
JJ BledayCIN
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.8± 1.8high
Corbin CarrollARI
0.7± 1.3high
JJ BledayCIN
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.1low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.6± 2.5low
Zac GallenARI
3.3± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

CIN

.691

OPS

.718

▶

.707

.307

OBP

.319

▶

.312

4.22

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.26

4.16

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.65

1.27

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.47

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

ARI 1 · CIN 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
CIN	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.251	4	0	2	0	0	1	0
C. CarrollRF	.282	5	1	2	1	1	0	1
G. MorenoC	.266	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
N. Arenado3B	.243	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
P. SmithDH	.103	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. PerdomoSS	.238	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. TroyLF	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Del CastilloDH	.183	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. WaldschmidtCF	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		35	1	7	1	1	3	8

Player

.251

.282

.266

.243

.103

.238

.222

.183

.259

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. SorokaSP	7.0	2	1	1	0	7	93
J. MorilloRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	15
Team	8.0	3	2	2	0	10	108

Player

M. SorokaSP

7.0

J. MorilloRP

1.0

Team

8.0

108

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. Arroyo2B	.250	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. BledayLF	.265	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Stewart1B	.247	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.247	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. SteerLF	.251	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. SuarezDH	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. MarteRF	.216	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
T. StephensonC	.205	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. McLain2B	.207	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. MyersCF	.263	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		26	2	3	2	1	0	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LowderSP	5.2	5	1	1	2	6	96
C. FergusonRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	20
C. PettySP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	26
T. SantillanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
Team	9.0	7	1	1	3	8	156

Team

ARI

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CIN vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.