MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL

ATL

46-25

CHW

38-32

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CHW no-vig %

47.9%

open 47.4% · +0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
50.1%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.4%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.1%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.78

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

48.2%

Market came to the model

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.7pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

ATL

no live price

CHW

★ best

+103DraftKings

edge +1.7pp · implied 47.1%

Book	ATL	CHW	Best edge
DraftKings	-124	+103★	+1.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHW vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Davis MartinCHW
6.3± 3.1low
Sean BurkeCHW
5.4± 2.3low

Hits

Chase MeidrothCHW
1.2± 0.8high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.1± 0.7high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Drake BaldwinATL
2.2± 2.0high
Matt OlsonATL
2.1± 2.4high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
2.0± 3.2low

RBIs

Drake BaldwinATL
0.8± 0.8high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
0.8± 1.8low
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Anthony KayCHW
2.5± 3.4low
Bryce ElderATL
2.4± 2.1medium
Grant HolmesATL
2.4± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

CHW

.744

OPS

.717

.737

.320

OBP

.319

▶

.325

5.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.76

3.29

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.29

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 0 · CHW 0 (tied)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHW +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant