MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYM

STL

37-29

NYM

30-38

Citi Field · Queens, New York

37,019 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

NYM no-vig %

56.3%

open 55.1% · +1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.4%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
49.1%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.7%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.5%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.93 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.20

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.3pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

STL

★ best

-130DraftKings

edge +2.3pp · implied 53.1%

NYM

no live price

Book	STL	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	-130★	+100	+2.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYM vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1± 2.7low
Dustin MaySTL
5.7± 3.6low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.3± 2.9medium

Hits

Jordan WalkerSTL
1.4± 0.8high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.3± 1.0high
Blaze JordanSTL
1.3± 1.3low

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.8± 1.7high
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.6± 1.8high
Bo BichetteNYM
2.5± 2.5high

RBIs

Blaze JordanSTL
1.0± 1.9low
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.0± 1.3high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.9± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.0± 3.2low
David PetersonNYM
2.8± 3.0medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
2.7± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

NYM

.722

OPS

◀

.717

.664

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.295

4.60

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.09

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.96

1.33

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.27

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

STL 4 · NYM 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
NYM	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. HerreraDH	.262	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
A. Burleson1B	.290	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. WalkerRF	.302	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. NootbaarLF	.227	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
M. WinnSS	.232	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. CrooksC	.182	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
N. Gorman3B	.194	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. ChurchLF	.253	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
B. TorresLF	.256	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	7	4	3	2	9

Player

.248

.262

.290

.302

.227

.232

.182

.194

.253

.256

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. DobbinsSP	4.1	7	3	3	0	5	88
J. BruihlRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	1	10
G. SorianoRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	8
J. RomeroRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	23
G. GraceffoRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	8.0	10	5	5	0	9	138

Player

4.1

0.1

1.1

1.1

0.2

Team

8.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BengeRF	.260	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. Bichette3B	.227	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. SotoLF	.277	4	2	2	1	1	0	0
J. Young1B	.288	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
A.J. EwingCF	.263	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. Semien2B	.220	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. Baty3B	.228	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. AlvarezC	.246	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. MelendezDH	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		34	5	10	5	3	0	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ScottSP	4.2	7	4	4	1	6	88
A.J. MinterRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	14
B. RaleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	20
L. WeaverRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
Team	9.0	7	4	4	2	9	149

Team

STL

NYM

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYM vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.