MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2BAL

SEA

36-34

BAL

33-37

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

15,776 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

BAL no-vig %

49.0%

open 49.6% · -0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.5%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
46.8%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.8%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.8%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.08

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-117

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

51.5%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

BAL vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.0± 3.0low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low
Logan GilbertSEA
5.8± 2.5low

Hits

Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.2± 1.0high
Cole YoungSEA
1.2± 0.8high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.2± 2.4high
Colt EmersonSEA
2.1± 1.8high
J.P. CrawfordSEA
2.1± 2.9high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.0± 1.6high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 0.9high
Colt EmersonSEA
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
Trey GibsonBAL
2.8± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

BAL

.713

OPS

.717

▶

.728

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.26

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.70

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.59

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

SEA 5 · BAL 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	5
BAL	0	0	6	0	1	0	0	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Young2B	.255	5	1	3	1	1	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.254	4	0	2	1	0	1	0
J. Naylor1B	.257	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.290	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
L. RaleyRF	.249	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
D. CanzoneDH	.276	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
M. Mastrobuoni3B	.286	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. PeredaC	.286	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Emerson3B	.231	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
V. RoblesRF	.294	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. GarverC	.186	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	5	9	5	3	4	9

Player

.255

.254

.257

.290

.249

.276

.286

.286

.231

.294

.186

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. WooSP	5.0	7	7	7	1	4	82
A. HoppeRP	1.2	0	0	0	2	2	28
N. DavilaRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	18
Team	8.0	7	7	7	3	7	128

Player

B. WooSP

5.0

A. HoppeRP

1.2

N. DavilaRP

1.1

Team

8.0

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WardLF	.263	2	2	1	0	0	1	1
G. HendersonSS	.218	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. RutschmanC	.273	3	1	2	3	0	1	1
P. Alonso1B	.243	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
S. BasalloC	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. TaverasCF	.258	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CowserRF	.227	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
C. Mayo3B	.197	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Holliday2B	.226	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Alexander3B	.285	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	7	7	6	2	3	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BradishSP	4.0	7	5	5	3	5	85
T. WellsRP	3.0	0	0	0	1	4	39
R. GarciaRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	16
G. WolframRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	7
A. KittredgeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	9.0	9	5	5	4	9	153

Team

SEA

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

BAL vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.