MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11DET

MIN

31-39

011

DET

29-40

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

30,714 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.0 · +0.5

DET no-vig %

53.1%

open 53.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.5%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
53.8%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.7%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.2%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.3pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best

+167DraftKings

edge +11.3pp · implied 35.2%

DET

no live price

Book	MIN	DET	Best edge
DraftKings	+167★	-222	+11.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DET vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.3± 2.9medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.1± 2.9low
Taj BradleyMIN
5.9± 2.4low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.4high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.3± 1.2high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
3.1± 2.7high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.6± 3.4high
Josh BellMIN
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.0± 1.6high
Josh BellMIN
0.9± 1.1high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

DET

.715

OPS

.717

.712

.316

OBP

.319

.316

4.62

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.82

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.93

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

8.3

K / 9

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

MIN 0 · DET 11 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
DET	1	0	0	3	1	2	1	3	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. LarnachLF	.256	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. BuxtonCF	.256	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.245	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BellDH	.229	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. LeeSS	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Lewis3B	.187	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
V. CaratiniC	.213	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. Gray3B	.252	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. MartinRF	.245	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. ArciaSS	.283	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. JacksonC	.296	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. KreidlerCF	.226	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	0	5	0	0	1	7

Player

.256

.256

.245

.229

.238

.187

.213

.252

.245

.283

.296

.226

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. MatthewsSP	6.0	9	7	7	1	4	81
C. LawerysonRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	32
A. JacksonC	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	15
Team	8.0	13	11	11	3	5	128

Player

Z. MatthewsSP

6.0

C. LawerysonRP

1.0

A. JacksonC

1.0

Team

8.0

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.283	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. Torres2B	.282	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.301	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
D. DinglerC	.254	5	1	3	0	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.237	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. Keith3B	.262	4	2	2	3	1	0	0
S. Torkelson1B	.211	4	1	1	2	1	0	3
Z. McKinstry2B	.185	3	1	2	1	1	1	0
J. RogersC	.158	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
Z. ShortSS	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. PerezRF	.186	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
M. VierlingCF	.205	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	11	13	11	6	3	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. MonteroSP	6.1	4	0	0	1	4	96
T. HoltonRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	25
B. BrieskeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	9.0	5	0	0	1	7	129

Team

MIN

DET

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

DET vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.