Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 11, 2026

FINAL+2MIA

ARI

34-34

MIA

34-35

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

8,580 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

MIA no-vig %

50.4%

open 51.1% · -0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.3%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
59.5%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.8%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.9%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.75

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-119

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.8%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.1pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

ARI

no live price

MIA

★ best

-166DraftKings

edge +2.1pp · implied 58.6%

Book	ARI	MIA	Best edge
DraftKings	+127	-166★	+2.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIA vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.6± 1.8medium
Michael SorokaARI
5.3± 2.8low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
4.9± 1.7medium

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.4± 1.0high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.2± 0.9high
Ketel MarteARI
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Corbin CarrollARI
2.1± 1.9high
Gabriel MorenoARI
2.1± 1.8high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.9± 3.4high

RBIs

Kyle StowersMIA
1.0± 1.6high
Corbin CarrollARI
0.7± 1.3high
Ketel MarteARI
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.1low
Zac GallenARI
3.3± 1.9medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.2± 3.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

MIA

.691

OPS

.718

▶

.708

.307

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.22

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.32

4.16

Team ERA

4.18

4.14

1.27

WHIP

1.31

1.26

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

ARI 0 · MIA 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MIA	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.248	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. CarrollRF	.280	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. MorenoC	.260	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
N. Arenado3B	.252	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
G. PerdomoSS	.241	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. Groover3B	.211	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. TroyLF	.240	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. GarciaC	.158	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BarrosaCF	.172	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. Del CastilloDH	.189	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		29	0	3	0	0	3	13

Player

.248

.280

.260

.252

.241

.211

.240

.158

.172

.189

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellySP	6.0	4	2	2	2	1	74
B. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	15
P. SewaldRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
Team	8.0	5	2	2	3	4	105

Player

M. KellySP

6.0

B. GarciaRP

1.0

P. SewaldRP

1.0

Team

8.0

105

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. HicksC	.265	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
O. LopezSS	.344	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
K. StowersLF	.213	2	1	0	0	0	2	2
X. Edwards2B	.304	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.260	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. CaissieRF	.215	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MarseeCF	.205	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
J. MackC	.244	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. RuizRF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. HernandezLF	.227	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		27	2	5	2	0	3	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. PhillipsRP	5.0	2	0	0	2	5	70
M. PetersenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
A. BenderRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	19
C. FaucherRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
Team	9.0	3	0	0	3	13	129

Team

ARI

MIA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIA vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.