MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SF

WSH

35-34

1011

28-41

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

32,459 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

SF no-vig %

53.1%

open 52.2% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.0%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
55.3%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.1%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.5%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.12

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+27.3pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

★ best

+236DraftKings

edge +27.3pp · implied 28.0%

Book	WSH	SF	Best edge
DraftKings	-329	+236★	+27.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SF vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
5.9± 3.5medium
Landen RouppSF
5.8± 2.1low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.4± 2.7low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.6± 1.4high
Bryce EldridgeSF
1.4± 1.0high
Luis ArraezSF
1.4± 0.7high

Total bases

Matt ChapmanSF
2.6± 3.6high
James WoodWSH
2.6± 2.3high
Bryce EldridgeSF
2.4± 2.1high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 2.4high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.1± 1.8high
Dylan CrewsWSH
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Adrian HouserSF
3.1± 2.7low
Robbie RaySF
2.8± 3.5low
Landen RouppSF
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

.745

OPS

◀

.717

.725

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.309

5.47

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.11

4.64

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.52

1.38

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

WSH 10 · SF 11 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	0	2	0	0	4	3	0	1	10
SF	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	5	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.271	4	2	1	2	1	1	1
C. Mead1B	.242	5	2	2	1	1	0	0
A. Chaparro1B	.148	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CrewsRF	.183	5	1	1	1	0	0	0
D. LileLF	.266	5	1	4	2	0	0	0
J. YoungCF	.236	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
N. Nunez2B	.203	4	1	1	2	0	0	1
J. Vivas3B	.238	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
K. RuizC	.274	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.264	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
Team		41	10	14	10	2	1	6

Player

.271

.242

.148

.183

.266

.236

.203

.238

.274

.264

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GriffinSP	6.0	6	1	1	0	5	100
P. SchultzRP	1.0	4	5	5	3	1	43
O. RibaltaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
G. VarlandRP	0.0	2	3	3	1	0	13
M. ParkerRP	0.0	2	2	2	0	0	8
Team	8.0	14	11	11	4	7	174

Player

F. GriffinSP

6.0

100

1.0

1.0

0.0

0.0

Team

8.0

174

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SchmittDH	.276	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Arraez2B	.327	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
M. Chapman3B	.262	5	3	4	3	2	0	0
R. Devers1B	.233	4	2	1	1	1	1	1
J. LeeRF	.338	4	2	2	0	0	1	1
B. EldridgeDH	.298	4	2	1	4	1	1	1
D. SusacC	.309	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
V. BericotoRF	.176	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CoxCF	.400	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. GilbertCF	.231	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
B. Kennedy1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. HaaseC	.234	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	11	14	10	4	4	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. RaySP	5.2	7	5	5	0	3	93
C. SeymourRP	1.1	5	4	4	1	1	46
R. SanmartinRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	2	31
Team	9.0	14	10	10	1	6	170

Team

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SF vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

SF vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.