MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LAA

HOU

31-39

LAA

27-42

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

25,179 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAA no-vig %

52.6%

open 52.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.1%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
46.0%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.4%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.4%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+23.7pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

HOU

★ best

+184DraftKings

edge +23.7pp · implied 33.1%

LAA

no live price

Book	HOU	LAA	Best edge
DraftKings	+184★	-248	+23.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Jose SorianoLAA
5.6± 1.9medium
Peter LambertHOU
5.3± 2.5low

Hits

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.4± 1.0high
Jo AdellLAA
1.4± 1.5high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 2.6high
Christian WalkerHOU
1.9± 1.6high
Jo AdellLAA
1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.9± 2.2high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
0.8± 1.6low
Jose SiriLAA
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.6low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.8± 2.8low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.6± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

LAA

.730

OPS

◀

.717

.708

.318

OBP

.319

.318

4.54

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.47

4.95

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.61

1.44

WHIP

1.31

1.43

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

HOU 2 · LAA 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2
LAA	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Y. AlvarezDH	.316	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Walker1B	.249	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
I. Paredes3B	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SmithRF	.220	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
J. MeyersCF	.212	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Whitcomb3B	.130	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. MatthewsCF	.204	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. VazquezC	.234	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PenaSS	.281	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.258	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. TrammellCF	.275	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. PriceC	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	4	2	2	1	13

Player

.232

.316

.249

.236

.220

.212

.130

.204

.234

.281

.258

.275

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. LambertSP	6.1	5	2	2	0	6	91
E. De Los SantosRP	1.1	0	0	0	2	0	13
B. KingRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
J. HaderRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
B. AbreuRP	0.0	2	1	0	0	0	7
Team	9.0	7	3	2	2	7	125

Player

6.1

1.1

0.1

1.0

0.0

Team

9.0

125

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.229	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. TroutCF	.224	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
W. MecklerLF	.316	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. AdellRF	.240	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. Peraza2B	.267	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Madrigal3B	.333	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. Mancini1B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SiriLF	.325	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
L. O'HoppeC	.212	2	1	2	1	1	0	0
D. Walton3B	.255	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	7	3	2	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. DetmersSP	7.0	1	1	1	0	9	89
C. SilsethRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	15
S. BachmanRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	9
R. ZeferjahnRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	21
Team	10.0	4	2	2	1	13	134

Team

HOU

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

LAA vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

LAA vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.