MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SD

CIN

32-35

35-32

Petco Park · San Diego, California

37,393 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SD no-vig %

59.8%

open 59.3% · +0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.0%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
57.7%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.3%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.6%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.68

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+139

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.9pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

CIN

★ best

+187DraftKings

edge +8.9pp · implied 32.7%

no live price

Book	CIN	SD	Best edge
DraftKings	+187★	-252	+8.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SD vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 67 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.1± 2.8low
Michael KingSD
5.2± 2.9low
Griffin CanningSD
4.9± 2.2low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.2high
Samad TaylorSD
1.3± 1.2low
Blake DunnCIN
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

JJ BledayCIN
2.1± 1.8high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
1.8± 2.6high
Samad TaylorSD
1.8± 2.6low

RBIs

Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.8low
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.8± 1.8high
JJ BledayCIN
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 3.1low
Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.4low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.1± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

.709

OPS

◀

.717

.652

.313

OBP

◀

.319

.291

4.30

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.83

4.61

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.90

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.29

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

CIN 4 · SD 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	4
SD	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. McLain2B	.209	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. BledayLF	.270	3	2	1	1	1	2	0
S. Stewart1B	.254	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
S. SteerLF	.257	5	1	1	2	1	0	0
N. LoweDH	.252	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
E. SuarezDH	.211	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
D. MyersCF	.268	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. MarteRF	.205	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
P.J. HigginsC	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Arroyo2B	.227	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. BensonRF	.189	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. StephensonC	.212	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	10	4	3	4	4

Player

.209

.270

.254

.257

.252

.211

.268

.205

.231

.227

.189

.212

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. SingerSP	6.0	6	2	2	1	5	95
Z. MaxwellRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	24
C. FergusonRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	15
T. SantillanRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	9
C. PettySP	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	17
Team	8.2	11	5	5	1	7	160

Player

6.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

0.2

Team

8.2

160

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.281	5	1	2	2	1	0	1
J. MerrillCF	.207	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
M. Machado3B	.172	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.224	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
W. Wagner3B	.750	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
S. TaylorLF	.333	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
B. JohnsonRF	.178	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. DuranC	.103	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. Song2B	.200	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. BowenRF	.176	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. AndujarDH	.254	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. France1B	.264	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	5	11	5	1	1	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KingSP	6.2	7	3	3	3	3	106
R. MarinaccioRP	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	23
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	14
Team	9.0	10	4	4	4	4	143

Team

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SD vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.