Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 10, 2026

FINAL+5BAL

SEA

36-33

BAL

32-37

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

13,483 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

46.9%

open 46.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.1%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
46.6%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.7%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.7pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best

-102DraftKings

edge +8.7pp · implied 47.4%

BAL

no live price

Book	SEA	BAL	Best edge
DraftKings	-102★	-127	+8.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BAL vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.1± 2.7medium
Bryce MillerSEA
6.0± 3.0low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low

Hits

Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.2± 1.2high
Cole YoungSEA
1.2± 0.9high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.0± 2.4high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.9± 2.8high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.5high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.0± 1.7high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 0.9high
Colt EmersonSEA
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.9± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

BAL

.713

OPS

.718

▶

.724

.317

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.23

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.65

3.67

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.55

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

SEA 2 · BAL 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Young2B	.248	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. RodriguezCF	.251	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.261	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.294	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. RaleyRF	.249	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. CanzoneDH	.277	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. GarverC	.186	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. Mastrobuoni3B	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
P. Wisdom3B	.128	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
Team		31	2	4	2	0	3	7

Player

.248

.251

.261

.294

.249

.277

.186

.333

.128

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. KirbySP	6.0	7	3	3	3	10	104
D. GonzalezSP	2.0	4	4	4	2	0	39
Team	8.0	11	7	7	5	10	143

Player

G. KirbySP

6.0

104

D. GonzalezSP

2.0

Team

8.0

143

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WardLF	.261	3	1	1	0	0	2	0
G. HendersonSS	.220	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
P. Alonso1B	.242	5	2	2	1	1	0	2
C. CowserRF	.226	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
L. TaverasCF	.264	3	2	2	1	0	1	1
J. Holliday2B	.220	4	1	1	4	1	0	2
T. O'NeillRF	.177	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
B. Alexander3B	.285	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. HuffC	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
Team		33	7	11	7	2	5	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. YoungSP	7.0	2	0	0	2	5	88
G. WolframRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	20
Y. CanoRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	13
Team	9.0	4	2	2	3	7	121

Team

SEA

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

BAL vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.