MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MIN

MIN

31-38

DET

28-40

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

23,517 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

DET no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.6% · +0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.3%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
54.4%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.2%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.8%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.83

CLV pp

Open price

+143

Close price

+148

Open no-vig

39.4%

Close no-vig

38.5%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+38.9pp

best edge · DET · DraftKings

MIN

no live price

DET

★ best

+1220DraftKings

edge +38.9pp · implied 15.4%

Book	MIN	DET	Best edge
DraftKings	+141	+1220★	+38.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DET vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.3± 2.9medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.1± 2.9low
Taj BradleyMIN
5.9± 2.4low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.4high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.3± 1.2high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
3.1± 2.7high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.6± 3.4high
Josh BellMIN
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.0± 1.6high
Josh BellMIN
0.9± 1.1high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

DET

.715

OPS

.717

.712

.316

OBP

.319

.316

4.62

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.82

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.93

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

8.3

K / 9

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 6 · DET 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	1	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	6
DET	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	1	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinRF	.249	3	2	1	0	0	1	1
B. BuxtonCF	.260	4	1	2	3	1	1	0
B. LeeSS	.243	3	1	1	0	0	2	0
O. ArciaSS	.289	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. BellDH	.227	5	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. Lewis3B	.176	4	1	1	1	1	1	0
L. Keaschall2B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. KreidlerCF	.230	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. JacksonC	.308	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		35	6	12	5	2	5	3

Player

.249

.260

.243

.289

.227

.176

.247

.230

.308

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ParedesRP	3.0	1	1	1	2	4	58
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
A. MorrisRP	1.0	2	2	1	1	3	39
T. AdamsRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	3	31
A. BandaRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	30
Y. GomezRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	27
Team	9.0	6	4	3	6	14	199

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.0

Team

9.0

199

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.284	2	2	0	0	0	3	0
G. Torres2B	.283	4	0	3	1	0	1	1
K. CarpenterRF	.234	2	0	1	2	0	0	1
D. DinglerC	.247	5	0	1	1	0	0	3
R. GreeneLF	.301	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
S. Torkelson1B	.211	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. Keith3B	.257	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.173	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
Z. ShortSS	.171	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. VierlingCF	.206	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JonesDH	.139	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. PerezRF	.181	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		34	4	6	4	0	6	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. ValdezSP	5.0	6	4	4	2	2	75
B. HanifeeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16
T. MaddenSP	0.2	1	2	2	1	1	21
D. SommersRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	17
B. BrieskeRP	1.2	3	0	0	1	0	19
Team	9.0	12	6	6	5	3	148

Team

MIN

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

DET vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.