MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2ATH

MIL

41-24

ATH

32-35

Las Vegas Ballpark · Las Vegas, Nevada

8,422 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 12.0

open O/U 11.5 · +0.5

ATH no-vig %

48.8%

open 47.8% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
37.9%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.1%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.2%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.97

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

51.2%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+15.0pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

MIL

★ best

+106DraftKings

edge +15.0pp · implied 45.6%

ATH

no live price

Book	MIL	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	+106★	-138	+15.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATH vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.6± 3.1low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.4± 5.2low
Gage JumpATH
4.8± 1.7low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.7± 1.4high
Nick KurtzATH
1.2± 1.1high
Shea LangeliersATH
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
3.5± 3.4high
Nick KurtzATH
2.9± 3.4high
Shea LangeliersATH
2.5± 2.6high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
1.2± 1.6high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.1± 1.5high
Jake BauersMIL
1.1± 1.5high

Earned runs

Luis MoralesATH
5.0± 0.3low
Robert GasserMIL
3.3± 3.0low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

ATH

.736

OPS

.717

▶

.752

.341

OBP

◀

.319

.331

5.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.60

3.45

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.80

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

MIL 5 · ATH 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	2	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	5
ATH	1	2	0	0	3	1	0	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. YelichDH	.287	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
J. ChourioLF	.301	5	1	1	2	1	0	2
B. Turang2B	.273	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. ContrerasC	.286	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Bauers1B	.283	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
G. MitchellCF	.247	4	2	3	0	0	0	1
S. FrelickRF	.223	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
L. Rengifo3B	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. HamiltonSS	.236	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
A. Vaughn1B	.360	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OrtizSS	.205	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	5	8	5	1	3	13

Player

.287

.301

.273

.286

.283

.247

.223

.200

.236

.360

.205

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GasserSP	5.0	8	6	6	2	7	93
J. KuhnelRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	23
C. CrowSP	2.0	1	0	0	1	0	19
Team	8.0	10	7	7	4	8	135

Player

R. GasserSP

5.0

J. KuhnelRP

1.0

C. CrowSP

2.0

Team

8.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ThomasRF	.269	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Kurtz1B	.283	3	1	1	1	1	2	1
S. LangeliersC	.283	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
T. SoderstromLF	.238	3	1	1	2	1	1	0
M. Muncy3B	.230	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. HeimC	.233	4	2	3	1	1	0	0
H. BolteCF	.295	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
Z. Gelof3B	.266	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
A. WilliamsSS	.167	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. ButlerRF	.163	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	7	10	7	5	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.T. GinnSP	5.2	8	5	5	3	5	97
E. AlvaradoRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	20
M. BarnettSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	4	31
Team	9.0	8	5	5	3	13	148

Team

MIL

ATH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATH vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.