MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7STL

STL

36-28

NYM

29-37

Citi Field · Queens, New York

35,175 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

NYM no-vig %

54.1%

open 53.2% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.5%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
47.3%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.1%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.7%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.91

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+108

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

45.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+15.8pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

STL

no live price

NYM

★ best

+235DraftKings

edge +15.8pp · implied 28.0%

Book	STL	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	-327	+235★	+15.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYM vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1± 2.7low
Dustin MaySTL
5.7± 3.6low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.3± 2.9medium

Hits

Jordan WalkerSTL
1.4± 0.8high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.3± 1.0high
Blaze JordanSTL
1.3± 1.3low

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.8± 1.7high
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.6± 1.8high
Bo BichetteNYM
2.5± 2.5high

RBIs

Blaze JordanSTL
1.0± 1.9low
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.0± 1.3high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.9± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.0± 3.2low
David PetersonNYM
2.8± 3.0medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
2.7± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

NYM

.722

OPS

◀

.717

.664

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.295

4.60

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.09

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.96

1.33

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.27

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 7 · NYM 0 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	0	4	0	2	0	1	0	0	7
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.245	5	1	1	2	0	0	0
I. HerreraDH	.264	3	3	3	0	0	0	0
A. Burleson1B	.293	5	1	2	3	1	0	2
J. WalkerRF	.301	5	0	1	1	0	0	0
L. NootbaarLF	.214	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
M. WinnSS	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CrooksC	.167	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Gorman3B	.197	2	1	0	0	0	2	2
N. ChurchLF	.260	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
Team		36	7	10	7	1	2	6

Player

.245

.264

.293

.301

.214

.231

.167

.197

.260

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MaySP	6.0	4	0	0	1	6	101
J. BruihlRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	21
M. SvansonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	5	0	0	1	9	133

Player

D. MaySP

6.0

101

J. BruihlRP

2.0

M. SvansonRP

1.0

Team

9.0

133

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BengeRF	.264	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Bichette3B	.230	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SotoLF	.276	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Young1B	.271	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A.J. EwingCF	.270	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
M. Semien2B	.223	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Baty3B	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. MelendezDH	.196	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
F. AlvarezC	.243	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Vientos1B	.212	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	0	5	0	0	1	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. PeraltaSP	6.0	6	6	6	2	5	98
J. GerberRP	2.0	3	1	1	0	1	21
C. PerezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	7
Team	9.0	10	7	7	2	6	126

Team

STL

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYM vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.