MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYY

NYY

40-26

CLE

37-32

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

27,154 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 7.5 · +1.0

CLE no-vig %

45.8%

open 45.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.9%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
42.3%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.4%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.06

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-137

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

55.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.2pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best

-138DraftKings

edge +4.2pp · implied 54.4%

CLE

no live price

Book	NYY	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	-138★	+106	+4.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.3± 3.9low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.2± 2.1medium

Hits

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.8high
Ben RiceNYY
1.0± 0.9high
Austin HedgesCLE
0.9± 0.7high

Total bases

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.0± 1.3high
Ben RiceNYY
1.9± 2.0high
Kyle ManzardoCLE
1.6± 2.6high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.8± 1.0high
Cody BellingerNYY
0.7± 0.9high
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Ryan WeathersNYY
3.0± 3.1low
Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

CLE

.763

OPS

◀

.717

.689

.330

OBP

◀

.319

.317

5.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

3.32

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.75

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.26

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 3 · CLE 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3
CLE	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.227	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Rice1B	.297	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	.281	4	0	2	0	0	1	1
C. BellingerLF	.272	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.231	3	2	1	1	1	1	1
S. JonesRF	.278	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
A. VolpeSS	.190	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. McMahon3B	.220	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
J.C. EscarraC	.162	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		35	3	8	3	2	4	8

Player

.227

.297

.281

.272

.231

.278

.190

.220

.162

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. ColeSP	4.0	5	2	2	2	4	83
P. BlackburnRP	1.2	3	0	0	0	1	24
T. HillRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. DovalRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	8
J. BirdRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	15
F. CruzRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	4	25
Team	9.0	10	2	2	4	9	156

Player

4.0

1.2

0.1

1.0

0.1

1.2

Team

9.0

156

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. Bazzana2B	.255	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. Ramirez3B	.241	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
C. DeLauterRF	.254	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
K. Manzardo1B	.240	4	0	2	0	0	1	1
R. Hoskins1B	.193	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. MartinezLF	.236	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
S. KwanCF	.213	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. HedgesC	.253	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.280	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
P. BaileyC	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SchneemannCF	.233	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		36	2	10	2	0	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. CecconiSP	5.0	6	2	2	2	7	87
C. HoldermanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	12
T. HerrinRP	1.1	1	1	1	1	1	24
M. FestaRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	17
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	8	3	3	4	8	149

Team

NYY

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.