MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6DET

MIN

30-38

410

DET

28-39

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

22,641 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

DET no-vig %

54.1%

open 52.2% · +1.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
55.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.6%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.4%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.67 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.95

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-120

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

54.1%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

MIN

no live price

DET

no live price

Book	MIN	DET	Best edge
DraftKings	+116	-140	+0.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DET vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.3± 2.9medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.1± 2.9low
Taj BradleyMIN
5.9± 2.4low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.4high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.3± 1.2high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
3.1± 2.7high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.6± 3.4high
Josh BellMIN
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.0± 1.6high
Josh BellMIN
0.9± 1.1high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

DET

.715

OPS

.717

.712

.316

OBP

.319

.316

4.62

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.82

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.93

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

8.3

K / 9

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

MIN 4 · DET 10 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	1	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	4
DET	1	1	1	0	2	3	2	0	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.255	5	1	1	1	1	0	4
B. LeeSS	.241	4	1	2	1	1	1	0
K. Clemens1B	.247	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. BellDH	.228	5	1	2	1	1	0	1
T. LarnachLF	.256	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.209	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Lewis3B	.174	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
L. Keaschall2B	.247	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
T. Gray3B	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. KreidlerCF	.220	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MartinRF	.247	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		36	4	10	4	4	3	11

Player

.255

.241

.247

.228

.256

.209

.174

.247

.257

.220

.247

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BradleySP	4.1	7	5	5	3	3	89
E. OrzeRP	1.0	1	2	2	0	1	23
T. RogersRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	1	17
J. LawrenceRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	2	26
C. LawerysonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	8.0	10	10	10	6	8	167

Player

4.1

1.0

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

167

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. Torres2B	.270	4	1	1	2	0	0	2
K. McGonigleSS	.286	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
D. DinglerC	.248	5	3	4	4	2	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.230	5	1	1	2	1	0	1
R. GreeneLF	.306	3	2	1	2	1	1	0
S. Torkelson1B	.214	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
C. Keith3B	.261	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. VierlingCF	.208	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.179	2	1	2	0	0	2	0
Z. ShortSS	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. PerezRF	.176	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	10	10	10	4	6	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MeltonSP	5.0	8	4	4	0	5	88
B. HanifeeRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	9
D. AndersonRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	17
T. HoltonRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	16
K. FinneganRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	22
E. De JesusRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	15
Team	9.0	10	4	4	3	11	167

Team

MIN

DET

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

DET vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.