MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9LAD

LAD

43-24

123

PIT

34-33

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

30,646 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

PIT no-vig %

50.0%

open 48.9% · +1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
37.5%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.5%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
37.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.08

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.3pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

LAD

★ best

+126DraftKings

edge +19.3pp · implied 41.5%

PIT

no live price

Book	LAD	PIT	Best edge
DraftKings	+126★	-165	+19.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PIT vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.8medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.9low

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.2± 1.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.1± 0.7high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.9± 1.7high
Max MuncyLAD
1.8± 2.8high

RBIs

Ryan WardLAD
0.9± 1.7low
Kyle TuckerLAD
0.8± 1.1high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Jared JonesPIT
3.0± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

PIT

.787

OPS

◀

.717

.736

.345

OBP

◀

.319

.334

5.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.95

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.26

1.09

WHIP

◀

1.31

9.1

K / 9

8.5

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 12 · PIT 3 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	1	0	0	0	1	10	0	0	12
PIT	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.301	4	1	1	2	0	1	1
A. PagesCF	.282	5	1	1	3	1	0	0
F. Freeman1B	.284	4	2	2	1	0	1	1
M. BettsSS	.190	6	2	2	0	0	0	1
M. Muncy3B	.269	3	1	3	1	0	1	0
K. TuckerRF	.233	3	1	0	1	0	2	1
R. WardLF	.259	5	1	1	1	0	0	2
D. RushingC	.286	4	1	1	0	0	1	3
A. Freeland2B	.246	3	2	2	1	0	2	0
A. CallLF	.260	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. RojasSS	.247	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. Espinal3B	.240	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team		40	12	15	10	1	9	9

Player

.301

.282

.284

.190

.269

.233

.259

.286

.246

.260

.247

.240

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. LauerSP	5.2	3	2	2	0	5	89
W. KleinRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	21
B. TreinenRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	31
T. ScottRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	17
Team	9.0	5	3	3	2	12	158

Player

5.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

158

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Gonzales3B	.304	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.249	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ReynoldsLF	.267	4	2	2	1	1	0	2
R. O'HearnRF	.285	4	1	1	1	1	0	3
M. OzunaDH	.195	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
D. Wendzel3B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MangumLF	.281	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. TrioloSS	.228	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
H. DavisC	.138	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
E. RodriguezC	.233	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	3	5	3	2	2	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. SkenesSP	6.0	6	2	2	2	7	103
W. DotelRP	0.0	5	6	6	1	0	29
B. BidoisRP	0.2	2	4	1	3	1	36
D. SantanaRP	1.1	1	0	0	2	1	31
T. CallihanLF	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	17
Team	9.0	15	12	9	9	9	216

Team

LAD

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PIT vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

PIT vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.