MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MIA

ARI

34-32

610

MIA

32-35

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

8,372 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIA no-vig %

54.1%

open 52.2% · +1.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.3%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
59.7%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.8%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.95

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-120

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

54.1%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.2pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

ARI

★ best

+195DraftKings

edge +7.2pp · implied 31.9%

MIA

no live price

Book	ARI	MIA	Best edge
DraftKings	+195★	-264	+7.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIA vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.6± 1.8medium
Michael SorokaARI
5.3± 2.8low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
4.8± 1.7medium

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.4± 1.0high
Liam HicksMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.0± 1.8high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.9± 1.9high
Liam HicksMIA
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI
0.7± 0.8high
Joe MackMIA
0.7± 1.0high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.5low
Zac GallenARI
3.3± 1.9medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

MIA

.692

OPS

.717

▶

.702

.307

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.22

Runs / G

4.50

4.25

4.17

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.11

1.27

WHIP

1.31

1.26

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

ARI 6 · MIA 10 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	3	0	6
MIA	1	1	1	0	0	3	0	4	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.253	5	0	3	3	0	0	1
C. CarrollRF	.283	5	1	1	2	1	0	2
G. MorenoC	.257	3	1	1	1	1	2	0
N. Arenado3B	.256	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. SmithDH	.136	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
G. PerdomoSS	.244	2	1	2	0	0	3	0
R. WaldschmidtCF	.267	4	1	0	0	0	0	2
L. Groover3B	.200	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
T. TroyLF	.279	3	2	1	0	0	2	1
Team		35	6	10	6	2	8	11

Player

.253

.283

.257

.256

.136

.244

.267

.200

.279

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. GallenSP	5.1	9	4	4	1	3	94
T. ClarkeRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	22
R. ThompsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
B. GarciaRP	0.2	2	4	4	1	0	17
K. GinkelRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	1	8
Team	8.0	15	10	10	3	4	150

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

150

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. HicksC	.261	5	1	1	1	0	0	1
O. LopezSS	.341	5	4	3	1	0	0	0
K. StowersLF	.213	5	0	1	2	0	0	1
X. Edwards2B	.306	3	1	2	2	0	1	0
L. Jimenez3B	.203	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. CaissieRF	.215	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MarseeCF	.201	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. MackC	.253	4	3	4	0	0	0	0
C. Norby1B	.209	1	1	1	1	0	2	0
J. Sanoja3B	.266	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
E. RuizRF	.212	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		38	10	15	10	0	3	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MeyerSP	5.1	7	2	2	2	5	95
A. BenderRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	11
M. PetersenRP	1.0	1	1	0	2	1	26
T. ZuberRP	0.1	0	3	3	2	1	15
C. FaucherRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	12
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	24
Team	9.0	10	6	5	8	11	183

Team

ARI

MIA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIA vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.