MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WSH

WSH

34-33

27-40

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

35,432 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SF no-vig %

60.8%

open 61.6% · -0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.0%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
56.0%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.3%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.2%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.31

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+149

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

WSH

no live price

Book	WSH	SF	Best edge
DraftKings	+119	-155	+0.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SF vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
5.9± 3.5medium
Landen RouppSF
5.8± 2.1low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.4± 2.7low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.6± 1.4high
Bryce EldridgeSF
1.4± 1.0high
Luis ArraezSF
1.4± 0.7high

Total bases

Matt ChapmanSF
2.6± 3.6high
James WoodWSH
2.6± 2.3high
Bryce EldridgeSF
2.4± 2.1high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 2.4high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.1± 1.8high
Dylan CrewsWSH
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Adrian HouserSF
3.1± 2.7low
Robbie RaySF
2.8± 3.5low
Landen RouppSF
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

.745

OPS

◀

.717

.725

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.309

5.47

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.11

4.64

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.52

1.38

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 4 · SF 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	4
SF	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.265	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.261	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
C. Mead1B	.242	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. AbramsSS	.289	4	1	2	2	0	0	1
D. CrewsRF	.185	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. LileLF	.254	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
K. RuizC	.275	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Vivas3B	.233	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Nunez2B	.201	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. TenaDH	.213	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. Chaparro1B	.174	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. YoungCF	.232	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	8	4	0	0	8

Player

.265

.261

.242

.289

.185

.254

.275

.233

.201

.213

.174

.232

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LoveladyRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	14
M. MikolasSP	4.2	3	0	0	0	2	54
M. ParkerRP	1.0	5	1	1	0	2	26
C. BeeterRP	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	16
G. VarlandRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	22
Team	9.0	13	3	3	1	7	132

Player

1.0

4.2

1.0

1.1

1.0

Team

9.0

132

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SchmittDH	.284	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
R. Devers1B	.237	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. Arraez2B	.324	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
W. AdamesSS	.238	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. LeeRF	.333	5	2	4	0	0	0	0
B. EldridgeDH	.287	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
M. Chapman3B	.250	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
E. HaaseC	.234	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. GilbertCF	.235	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. CoxCF	.400	1	0	0	1	0	0	1
Team		38	3	13	3	0	1	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. WebbSP	8.0	5	1	1	0	7	99
K. WinnRP	0.2	3	3	3	0	1	22
D. SmithRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team	9.0	8	4	4	0	8	124

Team

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SF vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

SF vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.