LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Bradish (BAL): 7.2 IP · 12 K · 1 ER in a win over SEA — Standout Index 94
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Stowers (MIA): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over PHI — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. McLean (NYM): 7.0 IP · 9 K in a win over CIN — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBR. Ray (SF): 6.1 IP · 8 K in a win over ATL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 33 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST in a win over PHX
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Citron (WSH): 26 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST in a win over CON
TONIGHT · WNBAATL @ IND, 6/18 - 7:30 PM EDT — IND -1.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Bradish (BAL): 7.2 IP · 12 K · 1 ER in a win over SEA — Standout Index 94
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Stowers (MIA): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over PHI — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. McLean (NYM): 7.0 IP · 9 K in a win over CIN — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBR. Ray (SF): 6.1 IP · 8 K in a win over ATL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 33 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST in a win over PHX
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Citron (WSH): 26 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST in a win over CON
TONIGHT · WNBAATL @ IND, 6/18 - 7:30 PM EDT — IND -1.5
HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1MIL
MIL

MIL

41-23

15
14
ATH

ATH

31-35

Las Vegas Ballpark · Las Vegas, Nevada
8,519 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 10.5 · +0.5

ATH no-vig %

40.9%

open 41.7% · -0.9

+2.0-0.5ATH SPREADO/U 11.5O/U 10.0TOTAL45.7%36.7%ATH NO-VIG %MODEL 39.5%Jun 7, 5 PMJun 8, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

MIL

league avg

ATH

ATH

.737

OPS

.718

▶

.748

.340

OBP

◀

.319

.329

5.37

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.59

3.42

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.91

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.45

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 15 · ATH 14 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789101112R
MIL10301021240115
ATH11600110040014

Final play

“End of the 12th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 63-40
61%Last 30 · 296-193
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.0pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

MIL

no live price

ATH

★ best
+172DraftKings

edge +5.0pp · implied 34.5%

BookMILATHBest edge
DraftKings-230+172★+5.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.04

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-163

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Mon, Jun 8·Final/SeriesATH wins series 2-1/VegasMIL -157

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Athletics and beat them, 15–14. It came down to the final possession.

ATH +1.5 cashed (MIL won by 1). Total cleared the 11.0 OVER by 18.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1W. ContrerasMIL+87.9pp
  2. 2K. HarrisonMIL−78.9pp
  3. 3A. WilliamsATH+57.8pp

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

1B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Jonah Heim

Jonah Heim

C

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/12

Batters

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. YelichDH
.2837220002
J. ChourioLF
.3055331011
B. Turang2B
.2786213110
W. ContrerasC
.2906333111
J. Bauers1B
.2864123111
A. Vaughn1B
.3646144100
G. MitchellCF
.2356000003
L. Rengifo3B
.1984100024
J. OrtizSS
.2053020000
- B. PerkinsCF
.1132110000
- S. FrelickRF
.2221000001
- D. HamiltonSS
.2402100002
Team521518144615

Pitchers

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. HarrisonSP
2.18882471
G. AndersonRP
2.20001328
J. KuhnelRP
1.21110420
D. RomSP
1.13110225
A. AshbyRP
1.24430336
A. UribeRP
1.10001215
C. PatrickRP
1.0000128
Team12.0161413520203

Batters

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. LangeliersC
.2857232103
N. Kurtz1B
.2826333213
C. ThomasRF
.2652110010
B. RookerDH
.2005100013
M. Muncy3B
.2375112001
T. SoderstromLF
.2374234220
H. BolteCF
.2976110004
Z. Gelof3B
.2676221103
A. WilliamsSS
.1545011001
- L. ButlerRF
.1652000001
- J. HeimC
.1791111100
- J. McNeil2B
.2341000001
- C. CortesRF
.3121000000
Team511416147520

Pitchers

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SpringsSP
5.08552399
L. MedinaRP
1.23220229
J. SternerRP
0.1100017
M. Leiter Jr.RP
0.11112123
H. HarrisRP
1.22221335
S. BarlowRP
1.03431118
J. SuarezRP
2.00100427
Team12.0181513615238

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • J. Kuhnel
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      39%·93.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      30%·98.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      22%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·83.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      4%·98.2 mph·0% whiff

ATH

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

18

Hits

16

15

Runs

14

0

Errors

1

Current series

ATH wins series 2-1

Jun 9MILMIL15@ATHATH14today
Jun 10MILMIL5@ATHATH7
Jun 11MILMIL3@ATHATH4

Season series

MIL leads series 1-0

Jun 9MILMIL15@ATHATH14today
Jun 10MILMIL5@ATHATH7
Jun 11MILMIL3@ATHATH4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

11.0

High-scoring · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MILMIL-15761%
ATHATH+13043%

↘1· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 49pp · Bottom 10th Inning

MILMIL
J. Bauers

J. Bauers

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

K. Harrison

K. Harrison

SP

Starting pitcher

2.1 IP · 4 K · 8 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

ATHATH
J. Heim

J. Heim

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

J. Springs

J. Springs

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat ATH 15-14. J. Bauers led the way — 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS. Heim's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (49pp).

Last play

End of the 12th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 9th Inning · 10-10
+42pp→ 69% WP

Vaughn · doubled to left, Perkins scored and Contreras scored.

ATHBottom 10th Inning · 14-14
+49pp→ 53% WP

Heim · homered to right (398 feet).

MILBottom 12th Inning · 15-14
+38pp→ 85% WP

Langeliers · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789101112R
MIL10301021240115
ATH11600110040014

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

15

Runs

14

18

Hits

16

0

Errors

1

32

TB

39

4

HR

7

6

BB

5

15

K

20

27

LOB

19

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 11·MIL -157/ATH +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

11.0

+0.5 since open

Win probability

ATH vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11I12

Period scoring

MIL won 5 · ATH won 3

1
1

Inn 1

Bauers 1

Langeliers 1

0
1

Inn 2

Williams 1

3
6

Inn 3

Turang 2

Soderstrom 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Vaughn 1

0
1

Inn 6

Kurtz 1

2
1

Inn 7

Bauers 2

Soderstrom 1

1
0

Inn 8

Chourio 1

2
0

Inn 9

Vaughn 2

4
4

Inn 10

Contreras 3

Kurtz 2

0
0

Inn 11

1
0

Inn 12

Turang 1

MIL
ATH

Play-by-play · 880 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 12

    End of the 12th inning

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  2. B12

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  3. B12

    McNeil struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

    −21pp

  4. B12

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  5. B12

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  6. B12

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  7. B12

    Chad Patrick pitches to Jeff McNeil

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  8. B12

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  9. B12

    Kurtz intentionally walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

    +5pp

  10. B12

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  11. B12

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  12. B12

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  13. B12

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  14. B12

    Chad Patrick pitches to Nick Kurtz

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  15. B12

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  16. B12

    Langeliers struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

    −38pp

  17. B12

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  18. B12

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  19. B12

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  20. B12

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  21. B12

    Chad Patrick pitches to Shea Langeliers

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  22. B12

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  23. B12

    Williams hit sacrifice bunt to third, Gelof to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

    +21pp

  24. B12

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  25. B12

    Chad Patrick pitches to Alika Williams

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  26. B12

    Patrick relieved Uribe

    ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  27. B12

    Bottom of the 12th inning

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  28. M12

    Middle of the 12th inning

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  29. T12

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

  30. T12

    Perkins grounded out to third. challenged call on the field was overturned

    · ·

    MIL 15·ATH 14

    −3pp

Player projections

ATH vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.6± 3.1low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.4± 5.2low
  • Gage JumpATH
    4.8± 1.7low

Hits

  • Jackson ChourioMIL
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Zack GelofATH
    1.3± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Jackson ChourioMIL
    3.2± 3.0high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    3.0± 3.2high
  • Zack GelofATH
    2.7± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.2± 1.6high
  • Jackson ChourioMIL
    1.0± 1.2high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.9± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    3.2± 1.8medium
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.0low
  • Aaron CivaleATH
    2.8± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.0%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    38.5%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    35.3%

    P(ATH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    38.8%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.