
MIL
41-23

ATH
31-35
Line movement
200 snapshots
ATH spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 11.0
open O/U 10.5 · +0.5
ATH no-vig %
40.9%
open 41.7% · -0.9
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
MIL
league avg
ATH
.737
OPS
.718
▶.748
.340
OBP
.319
.329
5.37
Runs / G
4.50
4.59
3.42
Team ERA
4.18
4.91
1.20
WHIP
1.31
1.45
9.9
K / 9
8.5
8.3
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
MIL wins
MIL 15 · ATH 14 (by 1)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked MIL +12pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| ATH | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
Final play
“End of the 12th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Line shopping · 1 book
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+5.0pp
best edge · ATH · DraftKings
MIL
no live price
ATH
★ bestedge +5.0pp · implied 34.5%
| Book | MIL | ATH | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -230 | +172★ | +5.0 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
The receipts
+1.04
CLV pp
Open price
-156
Close price
-163
Open no-vig
58.3%
Close no-vig
59.3%
Market came to the model · Graded: hit
Recap · MLB
ilwaukee Brewers went into Athletics and beat them, 15–14. It came down to the final possession.
ATH +1.5 cashed (MIL won by 1). Total cleared the 11.0 OVER by 18.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIL · top performer

Jake Bauers
1B
4-2
AB-H
1
R
3
RBI
ATH · top performer

Jonah Heim
C
1-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .283 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .305 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .278 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| .290 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| .286 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| .364 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .235 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| .198 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| .205 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .113 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .222 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .240 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team | 52 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.1 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 71 | |
| 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 28 | |
| 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20 | |
| 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | |
| 1.2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 36 | |
| 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| Team | 12.0 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 20 | 203 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .285 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| .282 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| .265 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .200 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| .237 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .237 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| .297 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| .267 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| .154 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .165 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .179 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .234 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .312 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 51 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 20 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 99 | |
| 1.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 29 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23 | |
| 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 35 | |
| 1.0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | |
| 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 27 | |
| Team | 12.0 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 238 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantMIL
ATH
No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
18
Hits
16
15
Runs
14
0
Errors
1
Current series
ATH wins series 2-1
Season series
MIL leads series 1-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIL -1.5
Total
11.0
High-scoring · +2.5 vs avg
Moneyline
1· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 49pp · Bottom 10th Inning
J. Bauers
1BBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS
K. Harrison
SPStarting pitcher
2.1 IP · 4 K · 8 ER · 8 H · 2 BB
J. Heim
CBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS
J. Springs
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 2 BB
How it ended
MIL beat ATH 15-14. J. Bauers led the way — 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS. Heim's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (49pp).
Last play
End of the 12th inning
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactVaughn · doubled to left, Perkins scored and Contreras scored.
Heim · homered to right (398 feet).
Langeliers · struck out swinging.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| ATH | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
Team stats
MIL
Away
Stat
ATH
Home
15
Runs
14
18
Hits
16
0
Errors
1
32
TB
39
4
HR
7
6
BB
5
15
K
20
27
LOB
19
Betting line
MIL -1.5·O/U 11·MIL -157/ATH +130
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
+1.5 since open
Total
11.0
+0.5 since open
Win probability
ATH vs MIL
Period scoring
MIL won 5 · ATH won 3
Inn 1
Bauers 1
Langeliers 1
Inn 2
Williams 1
Inn 3
Turang 2
Soderstrom 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Vaughn 1
Inn 6
Kurtz 1
Inn 7
Bauers 2
Soderstrom 1
Inn 8
Chourio 1
Inn 9
Vaughn 2
Inn 10
Contreras 3
Kurtz 2
Inn 11
Inn 12
Turang 1
Play-by-play · 880 plays
End of the 12th inning
MIL 15·ATH 14
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
McNeil struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
−21pp
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Chad Patrick pitches to Jeff McNeil
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Kurtz intentionally walked.BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
+5pp
Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Chad Patrick pitches to Nick Kurtz
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Langeliers struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
−38pp
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Chad Patrick pitches to Shea Langeliers
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Williams hit sacrifice bunt to third, Gelof to third.BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
+21pp
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Chad Patrick pitches to Alika Williams
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Patrick relieved Uribe
·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Bottom of the 12th inning
MIL 15·ATH 14
Middle of the 12th inning
MIL 15·ATH 14
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
Perkins grounded out to third. challenged call on the field was overturned
· ·
MIL 15·ATH 14
−3pp
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 96 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
39.0%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
38.5%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
35.3%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.8%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.57 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.