MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4SD

CIN

31-34

34-31

Petco Park · San Diego, California

37,223 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SD no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.6%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
57.5%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.3%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.5%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.44 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.4pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

CIN

★ best

+165DraftKings

edge +6.4pp · implied 35.4%

no live price

Book	CIN	SD	Best edge
DraftKings	+165★	-220	+6.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SD vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 67 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.1± 2.8low
Michael KingSD
5.2± 2.9low
Griffin CanningSD
4.9± 2.2low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.2high
Samad TaylorSD
1.3± 1.2low
Blake DunnCIN
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

JJ BledayCIN
2.1± 1.8high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
1.8± 2.6high
Samad TaylorSD
1.8± 2.6low

RBIs

Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.8low
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.8± 1.8high
JJ BledayCIN
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 3.1low
Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.4low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.1± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

.709

OPS

◀

.717

.652

.313

OBP

◀

.319

.291

4.30

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.83

4.61

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.90

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.29

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

CIN 2 · SD 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	2
SD	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	3	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DunnRF	.295	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. BledayLF	.273	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
S. Stewart1B	.254	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
N. LoweDH	.252	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
E. SuarezDH	.203	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. MarteRF	.175	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. McLain2B	.212	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
T. StephensonC	.205	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
E. Arroyo2B	.235	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
S. SteerLF	.265	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	2	9	2	0	4	11

Player

.295

.273

.254

.252

.203

.175

.212

.205

.235

.265

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AbbottSP	6.0	4	3	3	2	6	101
T. AntoneRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
Z. McCambleyRP	1.0	4	3	3	0	0	32
Team	8.0	9	6	6	2	6	146

Player

A. AbbottSP

6.0

101

T. AntoneRP

1.0

Z. McCambleyRP

1.0

Team

8.0

146

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.269	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. MerrillCF	.198	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. France1B	.268	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Machado3B	.166	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
X. BogaertsSS	.231	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.230	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
J. BowenRF	.200	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
S. TaylorLF	.286	3	1	1	3	0	0	2
F. FerminC	.161	3	1	2	2	1	0	1
Team		33	6	9	6	1	2	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BuehlerSP	4.2	8	1	1	2	4	86
B. RodriguezRP	0.2	1	1	1	1	0	17
A. MorejonRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	13
J. AdamRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	18
M. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	19
Team	9.0	9	2	2	4	11	153

Team

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

SD vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.