MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SEA

SEA

35-32

BAL

31-36

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

12,377 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

BAL no-vig %

45.8%

open 44.9% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.0%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
46.6%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.5%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.7%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.0pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best

-107DraftKings

edge +8.0pp · implied 48.5%

BAL

no live price

Book	SEA	BAL	Best edge
DraftKings	-107★	-122	+8.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BAL vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.0± 3.0low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low
Logan GilbertSEA
5.8± 2.5low

Hits

Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.2± 1.0high
Cole YoungSEA
1.2± 0.8high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.2± 2.4high
Colt EmersonSEA
2.1± 1.8high
J.P. CrawfordSEA
2.1± 2.9high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.0± 1.6high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 0.9high
Colt EmersonSEA
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
Trey GibsonBAL
2.8± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

BAL

.713

OPS

.717

▶

.728

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.26

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.70

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.59

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 6 · BAL 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	1	0	6
BAL	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Young2B	.252	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.256	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Naylor1B	.261	4	2	2	4	1	0	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.293	4	0	3	1	0	0	0
L. RaleyRF	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. CanzoneDH	.280	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
P. Wisdom3B	.125	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PeredaC	.288	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. Bliss2B	.000	2	0	0	1	0	1	0
V. RoblesRF	.276	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	6	9	6	1	3	5

Player

.252

.256

.261

.293

.253

.280

.125

.288

.000

.276

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. HancockSP	5.0	3	1	1	2	3	92
C. CriswellRP	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	19
M. BrashRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	18
E. BazardoRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	18
A. MunozRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	20
Team	9.0	6	3	3	6	6	167

Player

5.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

167

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WardLF	.260	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
G. HendersonSS	.224	2	0	1	0	0	3	0
P. Alonso1B	.239	4	0	0	1	0	0	2
C. CowserRF	.235	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. TaverasCF	.257	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Holliday2B	.212	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Mayo3B	.194	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. Alexander3B	.286	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
S. HuffC	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. BasalloC	.266	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	3	6	2	0	6	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GibsonSP	4.2	5	3	3	1	0	68
A. NunezRP	2.1	1	2	2	1	2	32
A. SuarezRP	2.0	3	1	1	1	3	39
Team	9.0	9	6	6	3	5	139

Team

SEA

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BAL vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.